Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 10, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Race Is On for Crude Supply Leave it to geopolitics to upset the run of low oil pricing and start people thinking seriously about the old threats of inflation. The U.S. has not yet worked out the details as far as renewed sanctions on Iranian oil—this may not be decided until November of this year. It looks like...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 8, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Is Secular Stagnation Dead? The notion behind the concept of secular stagnation is that the U.S. economy and that of the European states and others will be prone to periods of very slow growth unless there are extraordinary steps taken to stimulate the economy beyond what it seems to be capable of. The last few ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 7, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy NAFTA Plans The latest proposal from the Trump team as regards NAFTA is pulling together some interesting bedfellows. The objection that some have had regarding Mexico's role in U.S. manufacturing is that pay scales are far too low for U.S. manufacturers to compete. This is obviously part of what attracted many ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 4, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Long Fight Ahead All of the commentary that is coming from both the Chinese and American trade negotiators is suggesting that this will be a long and arduous process. This is both good and bad news for those that do business with China or count on Chinese products. The good news is that it now seems that threats...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 2, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Wage Hikes Finally Showing Up It has taken an inordinately long time, but there is evidence at last that wages are going up at a pace commensurate with the growth of the overall economy—this could be worrisome. For the last few years, the pace of wage growth has been weak—no more than around 2.3% on an annual ba...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 1, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Inflation Peaking? How big a deal is the fact that inflation has reached the 2% level as far as the core rate is concerned? It is both important and no so important. It has been the target for the Fed for the past few years. There was some sense of relief as far as analysts are concerned, but there is also recog...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 30, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Inflation Target Reached For the better part of the last decade, the Fed has been on a quest of sorts. It has wanted to see the rate of inflation reach a "normal" level of 2%. The thinking is that too much inflation is deeply damaging to an economy for the most obvious of reasons. However, too little inflation i...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 26, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Will Fed Stick to Its Guns? Up to this point, the decisions facing the Federal Reserve have been relatively simple. The economy is doing very well with an average of 3% growth over the last 12 months. It's easy to stay focused on the need to temper excessive growth with interest rate hikes. The bulk of the conve...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 25, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Stock Market Jitters Good news is not always good news for the investment community. Thus it has been with the rise of the 10-year treasury bond yield to 3%. The logic that has informed the investment community is that rising yields signal a very healthy economy—one that is perhaps too healthy to avoid the downs...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 23, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Can Trump Force Congress on NAFTA? Some refer to Trump's negotiating tactics as "hard-nosed." Others are not as charitable and refer to them as bullying. Most of the interactions with other nations have been intense and insistent. They have, however, resulted in some concessions. It is hard to say what gained th...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 20, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Obstacles Facing Oil Sector Now that per barrel oil prices are rising again, there is an assumption the oil boom that marked North Dakota and other regions a few years ago will soon resume. After all, that was the assertion when things started to wind down. The problem may be far more complex than just the price...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 19, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Jobless Claims Continue to Drop It takes two developments to get unemployment rates as low as they have been for the last couple of years. The first is that there has to be hiring, which has been the case since 2016. However, just as important and perhaps more significant to those who are employed is that people...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 17, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Beige Book Out Today The Fed's report on general conditions in the country's economy is out today. It is expected to be a fairly positive set of reports. This is not a collection of definitive research conclusions, but rather impressions collected from the 12 Fed banks and the local boards that oversee these ban...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 13, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Prepared for the Next One? Sooner or later, there is another downturn—that much is certain. Granted, economists have predicted 17 of the last three recessions, but what goes up must at some point go down. The Fed is deeply concerned that current fiscal policy is going to make responding very hard. The mounting d...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 12, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Fed Minutes Reveal Attitudes on Inflation It has been pretty obvious the Fed has become more sensitive to an outbreak of inflation just by the kind of commentary coming from the members, but the latest set of Fed minutes confirms the estimation. There is consensus that inflation will soon reach the 2% threshold,...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 11, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Debt and Homeownership It has not been a hard and fast rule, but the thinking has long been that one's mortgage should not account for more than about 30% of one's income. Any more than that and one is said to be house poor and on financially tricky footing. Right now, there are many more people falling into tha...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 10, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Innovation Shift? Over the years, there have been many myths that have been challenged. The U.S. and Europe have watched the development of strong and competitive manufacturing sectors in states such as India, China and elsewhere, but they have long contented themselves with the assumption that only they have be...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 9, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Manufacturers Speak Out There has always been a love-hate relationship between the U.S. and China as far as the manufacturer is concerned. On the one hand, there is the intense competitive pressure that China started to impose on the U.S. sector as far back as the 1980s. The landscape of the industrial community...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 6, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Rhetoric Ramps Up If one looks at just the theatrics, it would seem the U.S. and China are headed down a path of mutual destruction—at least of their economies. The tit-for-tat exchange now includes hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of products from both nations. Trump upped his threats yesterday and China ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 5, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Should Growth Be Decelerating? The fact is that growth numbers have been weakening a little throughout the country. Every region is experiencing a flatter pace of growth than the month before, but nothing suggests even a long-term dip. There is no crisis to sound an alarm over, but it does bring up a nagging que...
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