Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 24, 2020

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyImproving Business ConditionsAs 2019 came to an end, there was some difference of opinion as far as what to expect in the coming year. There have been some headwinds and concerns, but it was not clear whether these would really inhibit growth plans. It now appears that most of these concerns seem manageable and m...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 22, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy The Chore GapThere has been quite a lot of attention devoted to some of the gender gap issues—everything from pay differences to promotions. Relatively little attention has been paid to the "chore gap," but some studies reveal this issue has a direct impact on some of the bi...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 20, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyAggressive TargetsNow that the U.S. and China have seemingly called a truce, all eyes have shifted to a more monitoring position—Can the Chinese really live up to their promises? Given the reaction of the business and economic community, it seems there are many skeptics. The ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 17, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyWho Has the Leverage?The trade deal signed between the U.S. and China has broken with the usual pattern of trade deals and will likely have an impact on future negotiations between nations. The system established at the end of WWII sought to balance trade talks through the us...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 13, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—What Worries the Fed? The commentary from some of the regional Fed officials would suggest the Fed has the same concerns as have been expressed in previous years despite the fact there is no imminent risk that would require immediate action. Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 10, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Women in Ascendance For the first time in a decade, women make up the majority of the workforce. This is not the first time that women have held this position, but the situation is far different from the last time this was the case. In the past, it was due to the fact men we...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 8, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Do Tax Incentives Work? There is no subject that generates more controversy within economic development circles than the effectiveness of the tax incentive. The logic seems sound enough at first glance. A city or state wants to attract a major employer to choose them. To lur...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 6, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Can the Fed React to a Recession Threat? One of the consistent concerns expressed over the historically low interest rates is they have fallen so far that the Fed no longer has the tools it needs to deal with a recession should one appear. The traditional means by which the ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 3, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyFed PlansThis is the week the minutes from the December meeting of the FOMC are released, and this will provide an opportunity to learn what was on their mind at that session. The decision at the time was to leave the rates alone, and there was no dissent from the doves who h...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 30, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Will Business Investment Bounce Back?— Much of the progress for the economy this past year has been due to the activity within the consumer sector. Consumers have been reacting to the good job numbers and the lack of inflation. The news has not been as good as far as the bus...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 23, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Durable Goods Slide— Most of the news from the consumer has been pretty solid of late. There have been good retail numbers and consumer confidence has remained strong. That hardly means there is nothing for the dismal scientists to worry about. The latest data on durable goods show...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 20, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Even the Doves Are Satisfied— It has been no shock that various hawks on the Fed's Open Market Committee have been calling for an end to the lowering of rates—Esther George and Eric Rosengren have dissented against the cuts three times in the last several months. There had bee...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 18, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Industrial Activity Recovers— The industrial production numbers include three sectors that do not always move in lockstep. The biggest part of the measurement concerns manufacturing. Of late, this sector has been slowing down. The other two categories include mining (which i...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 16, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Too Much Collateral—Too Little Cash— The repo market is largely unfamiliar with the general public, but it is certainly important to the banking system. This is the system banks use to do short-term loans. The banks borrow money overnight to handle the day's obligations and ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 13, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—U.S. EconomySlower Start than ExpectedThere were some pretty high hopes for the retail season, but they seem to have been somewhat misplaced as the numbers are weaker than expected. The season started off pretty well with a good back-to-school period and a decent Halloween, but the big da...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 11, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyTax Policy Arguments ContinueDespite almost a year of negotiating, there is no end in sight as regards the development of tax breaks. The sense now is that a deal will have to wait until after the first of the year, as there has been no progress on the issue in the Senate. Sev...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 9, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—A Giant Has Passed— The news started off with a depressing note. Paul Volcker has passed away at the tender age of 92. It is hard to argue that there has been a more influential Fed chairman in modern times and very few economists with the reach he had. As recently as a year...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 6, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—No Shocks Expected in Today's Jobs Data— By the time you read this, the jobs numbers will have been released and you will know whether the economists have any idea about what is going on in the economy. The expectation is there will have been some solid job gains and the ove...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 4, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Few Takers for Expanded Offshore Drilling— A year or so ago, there was a statement from the White House that suggested the U.S. was going to go full tilt towards more offshore drilling. There was limited enthusiasm from the energy sector as there has been a decline in demand...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 3, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Services Domination Shrinks— The U.S. has long run a deficit when it comes to goods. The fact is U.S. consumers want low prices and lots of variety and have long availed themselves of the global output. At the same time, the U.S. has run a surplus with almost every nation wh...
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