Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 16, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Small Business and the Shutdown Much of the attention has been focused on the estimated 800,000 people who are federal employees and not being paid. This will certainly have an economic impact in those regions where federal employment is a major part of the community, but an even bigger impact will be felt by th...
Continue reading
  40 Hits
  0 Comments
40 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 14, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Visa Reversal? At this stage nobody quite knows what this means, but on the surface, it sounds promising. The statement by President Trump in a tweet was cryptic and nobody knows if this is part of some well-developed effort or something that just occurred to him. The statement suggests there will be some major ...
Continue reading
  44 Hits
  0 Comments
44 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 11, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Shutdown and Unemployment The government shutdown has now lasted longer than any of the previous episodes. With both sides as dug in as they ever were, there is no end in sight. The impact on the 800,000 employees has started to become severe. There have been significant problems for those who once relied on var...
Continue reading
  48 Hits
  0 Comments
48 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 9, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Small Business Loses Confidence Small business confidence can be an illusive quarry. It is so diverse it can be hard to gauge an overall attitude to much of anything. The National Federation for Independent Business (NFIB) does a pretty fair job of polling and assessing the group. Their studies have been showing...
Continue reading
  68 Hits
  0 Comments
68 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 7, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Gig Economy Is a Flop At least that is the conclusion for the time being. It was just a few years ago that many thought the "gig economy" would totally transform the workforce and alter the relationship between employer and employee forever. After some 10 years of research, it is safe to say that the gig economy...
Continue reading
  39 Hits
  0 Comments
39 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 4, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Momentum Shift There is more evidence that 2019 will not be the repeat of 2018 that many had been hoping for. The latest edition of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell sharply to 54.1. This was after a reading of 59.3 in November. A five-point loss is not common and comes as a result of far weaker export n...
Continue reading
  56 Hits
  0 Comments
56 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 2, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Tariffs and Exemptions From the very beginning, there has been a certain amount of confusion accompanying the steel and aluminum tariffs. The fact is U.S. steel and aluminum makers have been facing severe competitive pressures over the years from nations like China and Russia that openly subsidize and support th...
Continue reading
  53 Hits
  0 Comments
53 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 28, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Consumer Debt There are many aspects of the recent economic rebound that are positive and have contributed to optimism regarding the coming year, but there are also some potential land mine issues. One of the most threatening is debt. The level of consumer debt is back to where it once was—not a good thing. The ...
Continue reading
  87 Hits
  0 Comments
87 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 26, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Strong Retail Numbers The expectations for this year's retail season were pretty high at the start. There had been a pattern set already with strong back-to-school numbers and then a strong Halloween. The November numbers looked good, but there was some concern retailers were limiting themselves with another yea...
Continue reading
  92 Hits
  0 Comments
92 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 21, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Third Quarter GDP Down a Bit The latest revision of the third quarter data is a little less than anticipated. The estimate was that growth was at 3.5%. Now it seems that consumers were not quite as active as originally thought and the actual number (for now) is 3.4%. There will be more revisions of the Q3 number...
Continue reading
  89 Hits
  0 Comments
89 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 19, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy More Backpedaling on the Wall The latest twists and turns over the border wall are somewhat predictable given the number of times this situation has arisen already. Those lines in the sand are blurring again. It looks like it is time for another acrimonious compromise. Trump spokespeople have indicated the $5 bi...
Continue reading
  85 Hits
  0 Comments
85 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 17, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Reaction From State and Local Level It has taken a while, but the various stimulus efforts that had been undertaken at the start of the year have finally begun to pay off for the states and cities. They have seen some additional revenue coming in as result of the better business atmosphere and more consistent ta...
Continue reading
  70 Hits
  0 Comments
70 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 14, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Rethinking Fed Strategy There has not been a new position staked out by the Fed at this point. However, economists are busy reading the tea leaves and consulting their Runes as they look ahead to 2019 and what Fed policy might look like. The expectation earlier this year was that 2019 would look a lot like 2018 ...
Continue reading
  56 Hits
  0 Comments
56 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 12, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Massive Farm Bill Set to Pass At varying points over the last couple of years, it seemed the Farm Bill would never make it through Congress despite the fact it is critical to the survival of the agricultural sector in the U.S. This is the legislation that authorizes the myriad of subsidies and assistance program...
Continue reading
  55 Hits
  0 Comments
55 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 10, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Position Unchanged on China? It has been more than a little challenging to determine just where the talks with China might be. Both nations have adopted a fairly hard-line approach to the negotiations, but that is not unusual given what is at stake. The question is whether any part of this deal is set in stone o...
Continue reading
  128 Hits
  0 Comments
128 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 7, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Job Numbers About as Expected The latest employment data was not much of a shock, which is just fine for this time of year. The level of unemployment has remained where it was at 3.7%, although there were slightly fewer jobs added than had been expected. The assessment prior to this report was that some 200,000 ...
Continue reading
  53 Hits
  0 Comments
53 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 5, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Trade Challenges Await New Year It seems likely President Trump will have several major battles on his hands over trade. After a bit of a rally earlier in the week, the global markets have tumbled again in response to renewed concerns regarding trade. After the initial enthusiasm over comments by Trump and Direc...
Continue reading
  67 Hits
  0 Comments
67 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 3, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy China Makes First Move It has not come as a great shock, but it seems that China has been the first to blink in the trade war. The concession made by China has to do with removing some of the barriers to U.S. car imports. This was not seen as one of the most important areas of dispute between the U.S. and China,...
Continue reading
  61 Hits
  0 Comments
61 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for November 30, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy NAFTA Is Dead—Long Live NAFTA The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement has been signed by the respective leaders of the three nations, but that may be the easier of the battles to wage. Now the agreement has to be approved by the legislatures of the three signatory nations. That is expected to be an uphill battle....
Continue reading
  81 Hits
  0 Comments
81 Hits
0 Comments

Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for November 28, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Economic Indicators Flashing Yellow Of course there are a wide variety of indicators to choose from and no two economists will look at exactly the same ones, but some of the more widely used indicators are not as robust as they were even a few months ago. There has been talk of a recession in 2019 or 2020 depend...
Continue reading
  122 Hits
  0 Comments
122 Hits
0 Comments