Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyBusiness Investment ImprovesIt would not seem to be the case given the latest data on durable goods, but the pace of business investment has started to improve; however, not quite at the pace that had been anticipated when the tax cuts were implemented. The big fall noted in this month's durable goods data is con...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyCongress Gets Frustrated With Trump TacticsTraditionally, trade issues are the purview of Congress—at least there is an expectation that the legislators will weigh in. The president does not have the power to establish a trade deal without getting final approval of the plan from Congress. Likewise, the president ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomySlight Rise in Jobless ClaimsFor the second week in a row, the number of first-time jobless claims rose, but nobody is yet sounding the alarm as these numbers remain at historically low levels. The number this week was 234,000 and was not concentrated in any specific area. There was a slight rise in the number of...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyNew Home Sales FallAs expected, the pace of new home sales fell off this month. Analysts expected this slide, many of whom were actually pleasantly surprised the decline was less than anticipated. The headwinds that everybody has been talking about all year are stiffening up and creating an increasingly hostile e...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyKashkari Adds Voice to the Cautious CampIt's not that the other 11 regional Fed presidents are not men and women who bear the mantle of interesting in their own right, but the Minneapolis Fed head has a more varied background than most. Neel Kashkari was the "uber bureaucrat" charged with making the Troubled Asse...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyInflation DifferenceIt seems that the death of the Philips Curve may have been announced prematurely. This was one of those economic laws that actually worked most of the time. Simply stated, it held that when the unemployment rate fell, there would be wage inflation. It seemed to make intuitive sense that when t...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyJob MobilityIt has long been the case that workers in the U.S. have been willing to move to where the employment opportunities are. This was how many recessions have been dealt with in the past. Opportunities sprang up somewhere and people relocated. Today, that pattern is rare. There are many reasons people can'...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyManaging Trade DeficitsTo begin with, there is a deep misunderstanding as to what creates deficits and surplus on the global market. The Trump belief is that this is all about plots to negatively impact the U.S. economy with unfair trade practices, but the reality is that trade has far more to do with which count...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyIndustrial Production Levels Rise AgainThe 0.7% rise in industrial output marks the third month in a row for gains. This indicates a broadly healthy industrial market. The industries that are included in this measure range from mining to manufacturing, as well as the utilities. Over the course of the last years, ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Broad Gains in Retail The expectation was that retail numbers would be up by 0.3% and, for once, the prognostication was correct. The gains varied from one sector to another—the biggest gains were at gas stations with a 0.8% hike. That is due to the rapid increase of gas pricing, as the hike is expected to conti...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Gas Prices Headed Up It was only a few months ago oil analysts were confidently asserting the price of gas would not hit $3 anytime soon. It just didn't seem that any of the root factors would be much of an issue. The overall supply of oil in the world was more than sufficient for the expected level of demand. T...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Race Is On for Crude Supply Leave it to geopolitics to upset the run of low oil pricing and start people thinking seriously about the old threats of inflation. The U.S. has not yet worked out the details as far as renewed sanctions on Iranian oil—this may not be decided until November of this year. It looks like...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Is Secular Stagnation Dead? The notion behind the concept of secular stagnation is that the U.S. economy and that of the European states and others will be prone to periods of very slow growth unless there are extraordinary steps taken to stimulate the economy beyond what it seems to be capable of. The last few ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy NAFTA Plans The latest proposal from the Trump team as regards NAFTA is pulling together some interesting bedfellows. The objection that some have had regarding Mexico's role in U.S. manufacturing is that pay scales are far too low for U.S. manufacturers to compete. This is obviously part of what attracted many ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Long Fight Ahead All of the commentary that is coming from both the Chinese and American trade negotiators is suggesting that this will be a long and arduous process. This is both good and bad news for those that do business with China or count on Chinese products. The good news is that it now seems that threats...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Wage Hikes Finally Showing Up It has taken an inordinately long time, but there is evidence at last that wages are going up at a pace commensurate with the growth of the overall economy—this could be worrisome. For the last few years, the pace of wage growth has been weak—no more than around 2.3% on an annual ba...