Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 18, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyManufacturing "Fragility"The latest industrial production numbers showed a fairly steep decline in the manufacturing sector—the biggest part of the measurement. The utilities held their own and there was a small decline in the mining sector (oil and gas) as well. The overall ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 16, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Is It Still the Economy?— If the answer to this question is "yes," the polls suggest that Trump will win the 2020 election with a wider margin of victory than in 2016. The current position of the voting public is as polarized as it has been in decades with nearly equal numbe...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 14, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Tariff Threat Remains— Nobody seems to be getting too excited over the latest "deal" between the U.S. and China although there is some sense both countries are walking away from the edge of the cliff. The White House has reminded China that these more punitive tariffs will r...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 11, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Manufacturing in Recession?— According to two-thirds of the economists polled by the Wall Street Journal, the overall manufacturing sector in the U.S. is now officially in recession as there have been two consecutive quarters of contraction. The decline has yet to plunge gro...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 9, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Agriculture—Key to Breaking Trade Deadlock?— There is far more reason for pessimism than optimism about the trade war between the U.S. and China, but if there is a glimmer of hope, it may well come from the agricultural community. The Chinese are back in the market for U.S. ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 7, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Economy Is in a Good Place— In advance of the release of the Fed minutes, there have been some encouraging words out of the Fed. Perhaps the most interesting comments have come from Esther George of the Kansas City Fed. She is a hawk who has dissented from the Fed decision t...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 4, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMester Reminds People of the Danger of Low Rates Next year, the head of the Cleveland Fed, Loretta Mester, will be on the Open Market Committee and voting on what to do with interest rates. She has been a hawk on rates for a very long time as she was a disciple of the Philadel...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 2, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Manufacturing Matters— One of the adages in economic analysis is that we are what we measure. The "knock" on manufacturing as an influence in the overall economy is there are not that many people employed in the sector compared to other professions and compared to the past. ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 30, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Global Slowdown Catching Up For the last several months, there has been an expectation of global impact on the U.S. economy, but it seemed the consumer and the business community was managing to avoid the pitfalls. Those days may be coming to an end. The latest data has been...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 27, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyHave Trump's Attacks on Fed Worked? The relationship between the Fed and Trump has been odd from the very beginning. Upon taking office, Trump had the opportunity to pack the Fed as there was only one holdover from the Yellen Fed—Lael Brainard. Trump's choices were quite mains...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 25, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Home Price Increase Slowing Down The housing market is one of the most important economic sectors for a variety of reasons. The home is usually the biggest investment and store of value that a person has. The whole process of building, selling, furnishing and maintaining a h...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 23, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest— U.S. Economy—Who Pays for Those Tariffs? By now, we have become accustomed to Trump's habit of doubling down on a subject even when proven wrong. He still insists China will be paying the costs of the tariff and that is 100% untrue. This is not a tax on China—it is a tax on the imports ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 20, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Political Divisions Mirror Economic Ones For decades, the U.S. managed to avoid some of the striation that has long characterized Europe. The majority of the country was more or less on the same page economically, but those days are over, and perhaps permanently. The Democra...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 18, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Another Rate Cut in the Offing Today, the Fed will lower the Fed Funds rate by another quarter point as they have been expected to do for the last few weeks. There has been nothing to suggest inflation is becoming an issue and even more ammunition for those who see some addi...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 16, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—So Much for That Cheap Oil At one point, the price per barrel of crude jumped by almost 20% before settling down a little, but the increase was still the largest seen in one day in the last 30 years. The attack on the Saudi oil fields has been expected for years, but it was ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 13, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyGrowth of 3% This Year? No Way It is dangerous for political leaders to predict what is going to happen in the economy, but for a variety of reasons, they persist. It is expected of them to do so, but in the end, they are nearly always wrong. Trump has been asserting that his policies would bring growth of at lea...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 9, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyGlobal Debt Is Rising Concern In the years since the financial crisis that led to the recession, there had been an assumption this miserable experience would convince those in the business and financial community to be more cautious about debt. It was also assumed this experie...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 6, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Job Growth a Little Disappointing— It wasn't a bad jobs report, but it wasn't a great one either. The expectation had been there would be another 160,000 to 180,000 jobs added, but the reported number was just 130,000. This is not bad; however, this is the time of year that ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 4, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Climate Change and the 2020 Elections Despite what already seems like an endless campaign, the various candidates are still casting about to find the issues that will most motivate the voters by next November. There has been lots of attention paid to health care, income ineq...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 30, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Longer-Term Attitude Towards China It has become increasingly obvious that there will be no "return to normal" with China regardless of what happens in next year's election. From the end of the Second World War until the early 2000s, there was no doubt where China stood. We ...
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