Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 10, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Trade War Winners and Losers The confrontation between the U.S. and China has been altering the global economy for the last two years. As with any reorganization of the status quo there are changes that benefit some and changes that damage others. The pace of global growth h...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 7, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Where Was the Good and Bad News in the Employment Numbers? The number of jobs added was more than had been predicted—225,000 as opposed to the expected 160,000. The breakdown of where jobs were gained and lost was of the most interest and significance. The big gains were in ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 5, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Trade Gap Reduced Last Year There is good news and bad news as far as the trade deficit is concerned. For the first time in six years, the gap has narrowed. The problem is this reduction in the size of the deficit was the result of reduced imports, which occurred from the im...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 3, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Watch the PMI Data The manufacturing sector worldwide has been drifting deeper and deeper into recession territory. Today, the latest set of purchasing managers' data will be released for many of these countries. There is a universal expectation that the news will be bad, bu...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 31, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Consumer Slowdown The latest data on consumers is not exactly bad, but it isn't all that good either. For the last few years, it has been the consumer driving the economic progress in the U.S. Anything that suggests this run could be coming to an end will worry the manufacturers, t...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 29, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Durable Goods Orders Surprise The expectation had been there would be a 0.3% decline after a similar decline the month prior. Instead, there was a nice jump of 2.4% in the demand for goods designed to last three or more years. The one caveat to be aware of is that almost all...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 27, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Can Fed Develop an Old Tactic for Today? One of the concerns expressed by many within the Federal Reserve is it lacks enough ammunition in the event of another recession threat. The traditional tool was to lower rates to stimulate borrowing, but with rates as low as they are...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 24, 2020

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyImproving Business ConditionsAs 2019 came to an end, there was some difference of opinion as far as what to expect in the coming year. There have been some headwinds and concerns, but it was not clear whether these would really inhibit growth plans. It now appears that most of these concerns seem manageable and m...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 22, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy The Chore GapThere has been quite a lot of attention devoted to some of the gender gap issues—everything from pay differences to promotions. Relatively little attention has been paid to the "chore gap," but some studies reveal this issue has a direct impact on some of the bi...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 20, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyAggressive TargetsNow that the U.S. and China have seemingly called a truce, all eyes have shifted to a more monitoring position—Can the Chinese really live up to their promises? Given the reaction of the business and economic community, it seems there are many skeptics. The ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 17, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyWho Has the Leverage?The trade deal signed between the U.S. and China has broken with the usual pattern of trade deals and will likely have an impact on future negotiations between nations. The system established at the end of WWII sought to balance trade talks through the us...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 13, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—What Worries the Fed? The commentary from some of the regional Fed officials would suggest the Fed has the same concerns as have been expressed in previous years despite the fact there is no imminent risk that would require immediate action. Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 10, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Women in Ascendance For the first time in a decade, women make up the majority of the workforce. This is not the first time that women have held this position, but the situation is far different from the last time this was the case. In the past, it was due to the fact men we...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 8, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Do Tax Incentives Work? There is no subject that generates more controversy within economic development circles than the effectiveness of the tax incentive. The logic seems sound enough at first glance. A city or state wants to attract a major employer to choose them. To lur...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 6, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Can the Fed React to a Recession Threat? One of the consistent concerns expressed over the historically low interest rates is they have fallen so far that the Fed no longer has the tools it needs to deal with a recession should one appear. The traditional means by which the ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 3, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyFed PlansThis is the week the minutes from the December meeting of the FOMC are released, and this will provide an opportunity to learn what was on their mind at that session. The decision at the time was to leave the rates alone, and there was no dissent from the doves who h...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 30, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Will Business Investment Bounce Back?— Much of the progress for the economy this past year has been due to the activity within the consumer sector. Consumers have been reacting to the good job numbers and the lack of inflation. The news has not been as good as far as the bus...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 23, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Durable Goods Slide— Most of the news from the consumer has been pretty solid of late. There have been good retail numbers and consumer confidence has remained strong. That hardly means there is nothing for the dismal scientists to worry about. The latest data on durable goods show...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 20, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Even the Doves Are Satisfied— It has been no shock that various hawks on the Fed's Open Market Committee have been calling for an end to the lowering of rates—Esther George and Eric Rosengren have dissented against the cuts three times in the last several months. There had bee...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 18, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Industrial Activity Recovers— The industrial production numbers include three sectors that do not always move in lockstep. The biggest part of the measurement concerns manufacturing. Of late, this sector has been slowing down. The other two categories include mining (which i...
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