Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 30, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyFed Advocates Patience The problem is that few seem to know what that really means. There are now reasons to both raise rates and to leave them where they are, or even lower them again. After several years of non-existent inflation, there are some solid signs that it has been developing. Wage rates are starting t...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 29, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyImplications of a Cooler Housing Market The housing market has not fallen into the deep freeze yet. There seems to be enough demand to keep that from happening. The market has indeed slowed; there is a lot less economic activity than was the case a year or so ago. The higher price of homes, the shaky stock market...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 25, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyThe Jobless Dilemma It has been apparent for years that the shortage of qualified labor has inhibited the U.S. economy and reduced productivity. It has been a subject that gets beaten half to death by pundits from the right and left. Today, there was an interesting opportunity to hear a couple of perspectives. Th...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 23, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyHome Sales Data Slows Sales of new homes fell by 6.4% in the last month, the slowest month recorded since 2015. This was not a huge shock to the system as there have been a variety of "headwinds" that evoked a lot of comment these last few months. It has been the usual issue of higher prices and higher mortgage r...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 22, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyFlagging Consumer ConfidenceFor the last couple of years, the consumer confidence level has been high and, in many respects, higher than would have been expected. The sense has been that consumers pay close attention to only a handful of factors as far as the economy is concerned—jobs, prices and the behavior of ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 18, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyJobless Claim Still Low In the next few weeks, the jobless numbers are going to be very hard to interpret. This may be about the last week that claims can be assessed as an accurate indication of the state of the U.S. workforce. The government shutdown is dumping hundreds of thousands of federal workers into the ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 16, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomySmall Business and the Shutdown Much of the attention has been focused on the estimated 800,000 people who are federal employees and not being paid. This will certainly have an economic impact in those regions where federal employment is a major part of the community, but an even bigger impact will be felt by the...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 14, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyVisa Reversal? At this stage nobody quite knows what this means, but on the surface, it sounds promising. The statement by President Trump in a tweet was cryptic and nobody knows if this is part of some well-developed effort or something that just occurred to him. The statement suggests there will be some major c...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 11, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyShutdown and Unemployment The government shutdown has now lasted longer than any of the previous episodes. With both sides as dug in as they ever were, there is no end in sight. The impact on the 800,000 employees has started to become severe. There have been significant problems for those who once relied on vari...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 9, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomySmall Business Loses Confidence Small business confidence can be an illusive quarry. It is so diverse it can be hard to gauge an overall attitude to much of anything. The National Federation for Independent Business (NFIB) does a pretty fair job of polling and assessing the group. Their studies have been showing ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 7, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyGig Economy Is a Flop At least that is the conclusion for the time being. It was just a few years ago that many thought the "gig economy" would totally transform the workforce and alter the relationship between employer and employee forever. After some 10 years of research, it is safe to say that the gig economy ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 4, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMomentum Shift There is more evidence that 2019 will not be the repeat of 2018 that many had been hoping for. The latest edition of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell sharply to 54.1. This was after a reading of 59.3 in November. A five-point loss is not common and comes as a result of far weaker export nu...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 2, 2019

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyTariffs and ExemptionsFrom the very beginning, there has been a certain amount of confusion accompanying the steel and aluminum tariffs. The fact is U.S. steel and aluminum makers have been facing severe competitive pressures over the years from nations like China and Russia that openly subsidize and support thei...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 28, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyConsumer Debt There are many aspects of the recent economic rebound that are positive and have contributed to optimism regarding the coming year, but there are also some potential land mine issues. One of the most threatening is debt. The level of consumer debt is back to where it once was—not a good thing. The c...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 26, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyStrong Retail Numbers The expectations for this year's retail season were pretty high at the start. There had been a pattern set already with strong back-to-school numbers and then a strong Halloween. The November numbers looked good, but there was some concern retailers were limiting themselves with another year...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 21, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyThird Quarter GDP Down a Bit The latest revision of the third quarter data is a little less than anticipated. The estimate was that growth was at 3.5%. Now it seems that consumers were not quite as active as originally thought and the actual number (for now) is 3.4%. There will be more revisions of the Q3 numbers...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 19, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMore Backpedaling on the Wall The latest twists and turns over the border wall are somewhat predictable given the number of times this situation has arisen already. Those lines in the sand are blurring again. It looks like it is time for another acrimonious compromise. Trump spokespeople have indicated the $5 bil...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 17, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyReaction From State and Local Level It has taken a while, but the various stimulus efforts that had been undertaken at the start of the year have finally begun to pay off for the states and cities. They have seen some additional revenue coming in as result of the better business atmosphere and more consistent tax...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 14, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyRethinking Fed Strategy There has not been a new position staked out by the Fed at this point. However, economists are busy reading the tea leaves and consulting their Runes as they look ahead to 2019 and what Fed policy might look like. The expectation earlier this year was that 2019 would look a lot like 2018 w...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 12, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMassive Farm Bill Set to Pass At varying points over the last couple of years, it seemed the Farm Bill would never make it through Congress despite the fact it is critical to the survival of the agricultural sector in the U.S. This is the legislation that authorizes the myriad of subsidies and assistance programs...
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