Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for June 1, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Another Blow to Retail The promise was a tentative one to begin with. There was supposed to be a May rebound from the lockdown recession as communities all over the country started to re-open their businesses. This process has been halting and confusing enough without the adde...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 29, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Herd Immunity As the limitations of the mass quarantine become more and more obvious, there has been a great deal of discussion around the concept of herd immunity. Simply stated, this is when a significant percentage of a population has contracted an infectious disease and ha...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 27, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Will 'Work at Home' Extend? There has been intense speculation regarding which changes in the way the economy operates will be permanent once the lockdown starts to end. Will there be attempts to preserve all this social isolation? Will there be new protocols as there were aft...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 22, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Business Faces New Cost Crisis In many respects, the challenge for the business community is worse now than at the height of the COVID-19 crisis. When all the business community was locked down, the only good news was that companies were not having to spend money during a time...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 20, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Understanding Job Data There is an assumption that calculating unemployment is a pretty simple task. Either a person has been fired or they haven't. It is assumed that everybody who is laid off will file a claim for unemployment and every claim is an accurate assessment of the...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 18, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Consumer Holds Key to Recovery Speed This is not a shocking conclusion by any stretch. From the start of the lockdown recession, it has been apparent that consumers have held the future of the economy in their hands as they always have. The remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell r...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 15, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Lockdown Hits Women Harder than Men There are many aspects of this recession that have been unique. The list is almost too long to detail. One of these differences has been the impact this has had on the female workforce in the U.S. In prior recessions, the hardest hit group h...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 13, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—US EconomyBarkin Thinks We Are Near Bottom The latest statement from Richmond Fed CEO and President Thomas Barkin, suggests there is a light at the end of the proverbial tunnel. He is of the opinion the economy has hit the worst and is now set for a recovery, but he is quick to point out ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 11, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Is This as Bad as the Great Depression? At first blush, the answer seems to be yes. The numbers are every bit as dismal as they were in the 1930s. In many respects, they have been worse. The issue with a depression is somewhat complex and requires a little consideration when t...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 8, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Brutal Employment Data To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the latest jobs report was a debacle. The rate of unemployment surged to a record of 14.7%; the data showed a loss of over 20 million jobs. These are numbers that far exceed the recession of 2008 and even the Great D...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 6, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—What Would a Surge Look Like? Now that most states are experimenting with reopening the businesses that had been shut down as a means to enforce social isolation, there will almost inevitably be a jump in the number of infections. This will be due to the increased circulation ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 4, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Small Banks Rescued Small Business The relief packages from the federal government have amounted to $3.5 trillion. The money has been directed to a whole host of needs: money for big business and for small business, money for hospitals and money for expanded unemployment. The ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for May 1, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—US EconomyStimulus Failures The use of stimulus such as additional spending and lowered interest rates is the standard reaction to a recession. The basic idea is to get people spending money so there is economic growth sufficient to revitalize the moribund business community. The U.S. has...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 27, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—US EconomyExpectations for a Q3 Rebound There remain a great many unknowns as far as the COVID-19 response is concerned. That makes predicting the path of the disease more than challenging. There is growing anticipation of a third quarter rebound based on the assumption that most of the b...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 24, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—US EconomyMore Jobless Claims The numbers are still mounting—by most accounts this pattern will continue for a while longer. The loss of work will extend until there is a general opening of the business community and the need for employees begins to increase. The crucial factor at this st...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 22 , 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—US EconomyWill Next Injection Be the Last? It is likely there will be a continued need past this latest injection of stimulus funds. The Senate approved another $500 billion; this measure is expected to make it out of Congress this week. Will that be enough? It all depends on how quickly ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 20, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—US EconomyPMI Numbers Due Out This Week This is going to be a bleak week as far as the Purchasing Manager's Indices are concerned. The fact is they will all be falling—the only question is how far and whether there will be any real differences between the service and manufacturing sectors...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 17, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—US EconomyJobless Claims Top 20 Million The jobless numbers are hitting levels that are truly unprecedented—the total job loss from the 2008 recession was around nine million; this job decline has already been double that level. As threatening as this has become, it is important not to lo...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 15, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—US EconomyRetail Collapse To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the most recent data on retail is miserable—a drop of 8.7%. That is catastrophic as compared to any other recessionary period and well in excess of anything the U.S. has experienced since the 1930s. There are two ways to look...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for April 13, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—US EconomyThree Kinds of Job Loss There has been a loss of some 16 million jobs. That number may be a bit understated given that not every layoff is tracked and not every person who loses their job is going to be applying for unemployment. Within that 16 million plus there are three basic...
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