Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 11, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy A Fed Without Ammunition There are many reasons the central bank chooses to hike rates. Controlling inflation is at the top of that list, but it isn't always the most important. The critics of the Federal Reserve (including Trump) have tended to focus on the short-term impact of these higher rates as they will s...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 7, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Service Sector Growth and Angst The latest survey of the service community by the Institute for Supply Management is more than a little encouraging with numbers that rival those that came out in the manufacturing version. They went from 55.7 to 58.5. That would seem to suggest all was well within these communiti...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 6, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Rise in Productivity Later in this issue, there is an article that goes into the issue of why there has not been much of a wage hike given that there is a very low unemployment rate. It has been noted in the past that a low rate usually translates into higher wages, but not this time. One of the reasons for the ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 5, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Big Jump in Trade Deficit—Few Are Surprised Some certainly think trade activity is simple enough to figure out, but the reality is few issues are as complicated. Through the bulk of this year, the Trump approach to dealing with trade has been to demand concessions from trading partners and to use the U.S. market...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 4, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Playing Hardball with Canada The U.S. has taken a very hard-line approach to China when it comes to tariffs and trade. Much of this attitude is understandable given the fact that China has flouted almost every trade rule there is and maintains a very hostile position towards the U.S. on many political and milita...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 31, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Canada Pact Near? By most accounts, the U.S. and Canada are close to reaching a deal that will continue the connection between the three nations of North America (regardless of what it gets called). The interesting thing about the pact that has been proposed with Mexico and the ideas that seem to be swirling aro...
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Stephen (Admin) Holman
Saturday, 01 September 2018 18:51
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 30, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Reworked NAFTA Goes to the Legislators Given all the fulminations and hoopla that has surrounded the trade pacts like NAFTA, it would be forgiven if people really thought these are things President Trump can bring into the world or take away with the stroke of a pen. Once a deal is made, the next step is to turn...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 28, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Slump in Car Sales Has Arrived There have been predictions for many years now that suggest the end of the vehicle purchase boom. Those headwinds would range from consumers with no credit standing, lack of desire for new cars, changing patterns of transportation and so on. These are still issues that are in play,...
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Stephen (Admin) Holman
wow nice and cool please i want to no more
Thursday, 30 August 2018 13:58
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 27, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Some Odd Signs of a Strong Economy There has been a very low level of unemployment for some. That starts to have an impact on certain sectors of the economy after a while. The fact is many jobs are not all that popular and will not draw applicants until there are far too many people for the supply of good jobs. ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 24, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Lining Up Behind the Chair For the most part, the Fed is a body that rules by consensus. The members of the Open Market Committee are the permanent members of the Board of Governors plus four of the regional heads of the Fed that rotate on and off the FOMC on an annual basis. The Chair represents the views of th...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 23, 2018

Short Items of Interest—US Economy Near Universal Call for Higher Rates So much for the reaction to Trump's displeasure with the Federal Reserve. In the last few weeks he has become vocal about his opposition to the Fed's stated intent to hike rates. He would not be the first president to object to the Fed playing its traditional role of party poop...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 21, 2018

S hort Items of Interest—U.S. Economy How Will Fed Wind Down Portfolio? We know just a few things about the Fed's intent. We know they have decided to start exiting their $4.5 trillion position of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and Treasury bills. We know they want to get rid of most of the MBSs and remain in the T-bill market. How this is to ac...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 20, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Are We Saving More? According to the latest revised data, we are indeed saving more—a lot more. It was held that the average U.S. person had a savings rate of about 3.2%, but the revised numbers have this rate at about 7.2%, nearly twice. The revision comes after looking again at expenditures and checking some a...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 17, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Housing Bounceback but Not Much of One The June housing numbers were very weak. That set off a number of alarm bells from those who have been watching the impact of the housing sector on the U.S. economy. Most of the analysts were convinced that July would be a lot better. The consensus view was that there would...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 16, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy One Out of Three Ain't Bad There are three elements involved in U.S. industrial production numbers—somewhat related, but not precisely. The most important part is manufacturing. The second most important is the mining category as this includes the development of oil and gas reserves. The third leg of this tool i...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 15, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Small Strong Retail Start to July After cresting slightly above 4% in the second quarter, there has been endless speculation among economists over whether this rate of growth will be repeated in Q3. Roughly half think that Q2 was the peak and roughly half hold that this is just the start of things to come. The k...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 14, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Will Populism End the Bull Market? The U.S. stock market is about to set an important record—it will be the longest bull market in U.S. history. It has certainly had its ups and downs, but has been exceedingly resilient as it has shaken off many of the issues that seemed poised to end the run. The investment com...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 13, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Enjoy It While It Lasts The second quarter numbers did not really astonish people as there had been more than enough signaling that something good was in the offing. It would have been a very bad thing had there not been a reaction given the stimulus that was coming from the tax cuts. At the start of the year, t...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 10, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Small Jump in Consumer Inflation Yesterday, we talked about the stability of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and commented that it involves a lot of variables. The Consumer Price Index was also subdued with a gain of just 0.2%. This was slightly more than the action in the PPI, but far from cause for real alarm. ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for August 9, 2018

Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy No Change in Producer Prices This Month The level of producer prices stayed the same as it was last month; a bit of a surprise given all the turmoil that has surrounded tariffs and trade wars. It was thought that steel and aluminum would further jump start these prices, but apparently, the hikes were registered ...
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