Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for November 1, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D.—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Consumers Are Still Spending— The latest data from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) shows that consumers are still busy and still propping up the U.S. economy. It has been repeated ad nauseum, but it remains as true as ever—consumption is the key to the success of the globa...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 30, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Test for Gig Economy— The future of the "gig economy" may be determined by the battle being waged in California over how to classify those who are engaged in activities such as ride sharing, delivery services and the like. The companies such as Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and many ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 28, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Interest Rate Cuts— The Fed is starting to consider what it does next. The consensus view is that another quarter point reduction is likely. The two reductions that have taken place in recent months have been described by the Fed as "insurance" as there was no real pressing ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 25, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Chances for Major Deal with China Remain Remote— There has been some excitement in the global markets over the possibility of a "phase one" deal between the U.S. and China, but that optimism has been tempered by the fact that few think the next phases will be developed anyti...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 23, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Fed Injects More Liquidity— As promised, the Federal Reserve injected more long-term and short-term liquidity into the markets in an effort to reduce the volatility manifesting of late. The overnight lending markets have been nervous and somewhat unpredictable so the Fed has...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 22, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Massive Increase in School Funding— The current plan from Senator Elizabeth Warren would allocate $800 billion to public education—$450 billion to Title One funding for low income students, $200 billion for students with disabilities, another $100 billion for various grants ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 18, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyManufacturing "Fragility"The latest industrial production numbers showed a fairly steep decline in the manufacturing sector—the biggest part of the measurement. The utilities held their own and there was a small decline in the mining sector (oil and gas) as well. The overall ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 16, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Is It Still the Economy?— If the answer to this question is "yes," the polls suggest that Trump will win the 2020 election with a wider margin of victory than in 2016. The current position of the voting public is as polarized as it has been in decades with nearly equal numbe...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 14, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Tariff Threat Remains— Nobody seems to be getting too excited over the latest "deal" between the U.S. and China although there is some sense both countries are walking away from the edge of the cliff. The White House has reminded China that these more punitive tariffs will r...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 11, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Manufacturing in Recession?— According to two-thirds of the economists polled by the Wall Street Journal, the overall manufacturing sector in the U.S. is now officially in recession as there have been two consecutive quarters of contraction. The decline has yet to plunge gro...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 9, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Agriculture—Key to Breaking Trade Deadlock?— There is far more reason for pessimism than optimism about the trade war between the U.S. and China, but if there is a glimmer of hope, it may well come from the agricultural community. The Chinese are back in the market for U.S. ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 7, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Economy Is in a Good Place— In advance of the release of the Fed minutes, there have been some encouraging words out of the Fed. Perhaps the most interesting comments have come from Esther George of the Kansas City Fed. She is a hawk who has dissented from the Fed decision t...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 4, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMester Reminds People of the Danger of Low Rates Next year, the head of the Cleveland Fed, Loretta Mester, will be on the Open Market Committee and voting on what to do with interest rates. She has been a hawk on rates for a very long time as she was a disciple of the Philadel...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for October 2, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Manufacturing Matters— One of the adages in economic analysis is that we are what we measure. The "knock" on manufacturing as an influence in the overall economy is there are not that many people employed in the sector compared to other professions and compared to the past. ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 30, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Global Slowdown Catching Up For the last several months, there has been an expectation of global impact on the U.S. economy, but it seemed the consumer and the business community was managing to avoid the pitfalls. Those days may be coming to an end. The latest data has been...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 27, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM EconomistShort Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyHave Trump's Attacks on Fed Worked? The relationship between the Fed and Trump has been odd from the very beginning. Upon taking office, Trump had the opportunity to pack the Fed as there was only one holdover from the Yellen Fed—Lael Brainard. Trump's choices were quite mains...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 25, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Home Price Increase Slowing Down The housing market is one of the most important economic sectors for a variety of reasons. The home is usually the biggest investment and store of value that a person has. The whole process of building, selling, furnishing and maintaining a h...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 23, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest— U.S. Economy—Who Pays for Those Tariffs? By now, we have become accustomed to Trump's habit of doubling down on a subject even when proven wrong. He still insists China will be paying the costs of the tariff and that is 100% untrue. This is not a tax on China—it is a tax on the imports ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 20, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Political Divisions Mirror Economic Ones For decades, the U.S. managed to avoid some of the striation that has long characterized Europe. The majority of the country was more or less on the same page economically, but those days are over, and perhaps permanently. The Democra...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for September 18, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Another Rate Cut in the Offing Today, the Fed will lower the Fed Funds rate by another quarter point as they have been expected to do for the last few weeks. There has been nothing to suggest inflation is becoming an issue and even more ammunition for those who see some addi...
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