Tag: Economy

NACM’s Credit Managers’ Index slipped 1.6 points in May to 52.2, nearly erasing three months of improvement. This indicates the economy could collapse under the mounting pressure of lingering debt ceiling issues, interest rate hikes and continued stress in the banking sector, said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.

Treasury officials have warned lawmakers to come to an agreement prior to the X-date of when reserves will run dry. The X-date depends on both tax collections and government payments, and if there is not enough money to provide for the country’s financial obligations, the likelihood of a default is very high.

Bankruptcies remain top of mind as commercial Chapter 11 and Subchapter V filings have increased significantly over the past few months. Small business Subchapter V’s increased 81% year-over-year in April and commercial Chapter 11 filings were up 32%, per Epiq Bankruptcy.

The September NACM Credit Managers’ Index rose slightly from its two-year low from a reading of 55.0 to 55.6. While the small improvement is encouraging, many respondents have a more urgent tone when describing business conditions, said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.

Construction input prices decreased 1.4% in August compared to the previous month, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data. Nonresidential construction input prices fell 1.4% for the month as well.

All eyes are on the economy as business leaders wait to see if the Federal Reserve will push the U.S. into a recession or pull off a soft landing. Opinions about the outcome are somewhat mixed—Oxford Economics predicts a “mild recession” come 2023; Goldman Sachs says the U.S. remains on a “narrow path” to a soft landing; and TD Securities puts the chance of a recession at 50% in the next 18 months.