➦ A less global village? World trade in the age of geopolitical fragmentation
World trade is in transition, with the end of the ‘global village’ era and stagnation in its share of global GDP. Geopolitical upheavals, from Ukraine to the Middle East, are driving fragmentation, while ‘friend-shoring’ redirects trade based on alliances. Connector countries are rising, and new trade routes are emerging, but major powers like the U.S. and China remain deeply interdependent. Globalization is reorganizing to adapt to rising protectionism.

➦ Jobs up, rate cut expectations down
Faster Rate Cuts from the ECB Likely