Tag: Economy

The U.S. economy remains resilient with robust job growth, steady consumer spending and strong GDP growth of 4.9%—all despite one of the most highly anticipated recessions ever. However, many factors continue to weigh on the economy and have the potential to offset the positives. A recent eNews poll revealed more than two-thirds of credit professionals believe a recession is around the corner if we are not in one already, while only 31% see the chance of a soft landing.

NACM’s Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) fell 1.4 points to 51.2 in October. The CMI remains just barely in expansion territory above 50 and its lowest levels seen outside of a recession, said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.

With Congress racing towards a government shutdown on Oct.1—an outcome that is looking more and more likely—let’s look at the three most recent shutdowns and what you can expect this time around.

Commercial bankruptcies have skyrocketed since the historical lows during the height of the pandemic. At 236 corporate bankruptcy filings so far this year, the number is higher than the first four months of any year since 2010 and more than double 2022 levels, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. They forecast that the U.S. default rate will rise to 4.25% by the beginning of next year, up from 2.5% currently—or to 6.5% if there is a serious recession.

NACM’s Credit Managers’ Index slipped 1.6 points in May to 52.2, nearly erasing three months of improvement. This indicates the economy could collapse under the mounting pressure of lingering debt ceiling issues, interest rate hikes and continued stress in the banking sector, said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.

Treasury officials have warned lawmakers to come to an agreement prior to the X-date of when reserves will run dry. The X-date depends on both tax collections and government payments, and if there is not enough money to provide for the country’s financial obligations, the likelihood of a default is very high.

Bankruptcies remain top of mind as commercial Chapter 11 and Subchapter V filings have increased significantly over the past few months. Small business Subchapter V’s increased 81% year-over-year in April and commercial Chapter 11 filings were up 32%, per Epiq Bankruptcy.

The September NACM Credit Managers’ Index rose slightly from its two-year low from a reading of 55.0 to 55.6. While the small improvement is encouraging, many respondents have a more urgent tone when describing business conditions, said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.

Construction input prices decreased 1.4% in August compared to the previous month, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data. Nonresidential construction input prices fell 1.4% for the month as well.