By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Manufacturing in Recession? — According to two-thirds of the economists polled by the Wall Street Journal , the overall manufacturing sector in the U.S. is now officially in recession as there have been two consecutive quarters of contraction. The decline has yet to plun...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Agriculture — Key to Breaking Trade Deadlock? — There is far more reason for pessimism than optimism about the trade war between the U.S. and China, but if there is a glimmer of hope, it may well come from the agricultural community. The Chinese are back in the market fo...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Economy Is in a Good Place — In advance of the release of the Fed minutes, there have been some encouraging words out of the Fed. Perhaps the most interesting comments have come from Esther George of the Kansas City Fed. She is a hawk who has dissented from the Fed decis...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Mester Reminds People of the Danger of Low Rates Next year, the head of the Cleveland Fed, Loretta Mester, will be on the Open Market Committee and voting on what to do with interest rates. She has been a hawk on rates for a very long time as she was a disciple of the Philad...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Manufacturing Matters — One of the adages in economic analysis is that we are what we measure. The "knock" on manufacturing as an influence in the overall economy is there are not that many people employed in the sector compared to other professions and compared to the p...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Global Slowdown Catching Up For the last several months, there has been an expectation of global impact on the U.S. economy, but it seemed the consumer and the business community was managing to avoid the pitfalls. Those days may be coming to an end. The latest data has ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy Have Trump's Attacks on Fed Worked? The relationship between the Fed and Trump has been odd from the very beginning. Upon taking office, Trump had the opportunity to pack the Fed as there was only one holdover from the Yellen Fed—Lael Brainard. Trump's choices were quite mai...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Home Price Increase Slowing Down The housing market is one of the most important economic sectors for a variety of reasons. The home is usually the biggest investment and store of value that a person has. The whole process of building, selling, furnishing and maintaining...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest— U.S. Economy — Who Pays for Those Tariffs? By now, we have become accustomed to Trump's habit of doubling down on a subject even when proven wrong. He still insists China will be paying the costs of the tariff and that is 100% untrue. This is not a tax on China—it is a tax on the impo...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Political Divisions Mirror Economic Ones For decades, the U.S. managed to avoid some of the striation that has long characterized Europe. The majority of the country was more or less on the same page economically, but those days are over, and perhaps permanently. The Dem...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Another Rate Cut in the Offing Today, the Fed will lower the Fed Funds rate by another quarter point as they have been expected to do for the last few weeks. There has been nothing to suggest inflation is becoming an issue and even more ammunition for those who see some ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — So Much for That Cheap Oil At one point, the price per barrel of crude jumped by almost 20% before settling down a little, but the increase was still the largest seen in one day in the last 30 years. The attack on the Saudi oil fields has been expected for years, but it ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Job Growth a Little Disappointing — It wasn't a bad jobs report, but it wasn't a great one either. The expectation had been there would be another 160,000 to 180,000 jobs added, but the reported number was just 130,000. This is not bad; however, this is the time of year ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Climate Change and the 2020 Elections Despite what already seems like an endless campaign, the various candidates are still casting about to find the issues that will most motivate the voters by next November. There has been lots of attention paid to health care, income ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Longer-Term Attitude Towards China It has become increasingly obvious that there will be no "return to normal" with China regardless of what happens in next year's election. From the end of the Second World War until the early 2000s, there was no doubt where China stood....

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Disaster Relief It would not seem that providing assistance to those who have been affected by natural disasters would be controversial, but in nearly every case the process is fraught with controversy. The most common issue is the ability of the recipients to handle the...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy — Decent News Expected from Durable Goods Data By the time you read this the Commerce Department will have released the latest durable goods numbers. Most expect them to show another month of improvement—even as the aerospace sector continues to grapple with the issues sur...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy: Delayed but Not Forgotten — The threat to impose a raft of new tariffs on goods from China was delayed until December, but not all of the affected goods have been given that reprieve. There will be tariffs imposed on a wide range of consumer goods—everything from apparel ...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy: Is Inflation Finally Starting to Ramp Up? — Certainly nobody is talking about runaway prices, but for two months in a row, there has been an increase of 0.3% in the readings for the Consumer Price Index. The hikes have been broad-based as well and have occurred even as so...

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist — Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy:  Housing Market Shift — It is hardly news that the housing market is local at its heart. At any given time, there will be hot markets and cold ones. The overall pace of housing has been slower of late, but there are still many places experiencing high demand. This ma...