Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 27, 2020

 By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Stimulus Holdup It seems not everybody thinks the U.S. economy is in trouble. Rep. Thomas Massie from Kentucky has indicated he will vote against the bailout and will demand the vote be via roll call as opposed to a voice vote that doesn't require a quorum be present. He...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 25, 2020

 By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Road to Hell and Best Intentions The decision on the part of the federal government to delay the time for people to file their income taxes was designed to give people a brief reprieve in the middle of the virus crisis, but as with most such gestures, it has had unintend...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 20, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Denial Always Helps The latest statements from Trump and his team are anything but helpful and have added to the angst in the business community. States have been asked to withhold information regarding jobless claims. This is ostensibly to focus attention on the national numb...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 16, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Virus Crisis Number One As the reaction to the virus crisis expands, it has become abundantly obvious economic collapse is very likely. There are sectors that will be in bigger trouble than others. At the top of the list will be small business. If Seattle is any indication, th...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 13, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Reactions There may still be a good bit of debate over who is and who is not at risk from COVID-19, but there is unanimous agreement that the virus has devastated the global economy. The issue started out as a supply chain crisis stemming from the shutdown in China, but now th...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 11, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Mortgage Rates Plummet Not much good can come of the market collapse, but as investors frantically seek out havens, they are driving the yields on treasury bills to record lows. That has an impact on mortgage rates. The basic idea behind lowering the fed funds rate is to do ex...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 9, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Virus Ripple Number One—Oil The price per barrel of oil has crashed to levels not seen in decades as demand has collapsed for the commodity. The most significant decline has been in China, but there has been substantial reduction of demand in the U.S., Japan and Europe as well...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 6, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Job Numbers Look Good This is the report that came out before the impact of the virus. At this stage, the economy looks pretty solid with 273,000 jobs created—far more than had been anticipated. What happens from here is anybody's guess. The virus has not seemed to provoke any...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 4, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Hawks and Doves on Same Page It was expected the Fed would take action at some point, but that they chose to do this now was a shock as they had been asserting there was no immediate plan as recently as three weeks ago. That there was unanimous support was also a bit of a surp...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for March 2, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Lots of Data to Work with This Week There will be a chance to gauge just how important the virus outbreak has been. The various iterations of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released and several will be parsed very carefully. We already know the Chinese PMI plumme...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 28, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Meanwhile—Back at the Ranch It would seem that everything else in the economy stopped once the issue of the coronavirus hit, but as important as this outbreak has become, there is a certain amount of life that still goes on. One of the ongoing issues has to do with where peopl...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 26, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Home Prices Ratcheting Up The price of homes has been rising again—by 3.8% in 2019. In truth, the price of homes has been inching up consistently for years, but the pace quickened in the last year. The price hikes are varied with the highest being in the hottest markets (as on...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 24, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Consumer Confidence Watch Tomorrow, the Conference Board will release its latest survey data on the mind of the consumer. As long-time readers know by this time, I am not a huge fan of these consumer surveys as the consumer is notoriously fickle and hard to read. One day they ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 14, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Slight Hike in Consumer Inflation The latest consumer price index has been released. It showed a 0.1% increase in consumer inflation. This is attributed to rising costs in sectors such as health care, food and housing. Even in these sectors, there was considerable variety. T...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 12, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Revisions to the Oil Data There is little doubt the oil world has been flipped by the development of oil resources in the U.S. Each month, there is more data that reinforces that observation. The Energy Information Agency has announced the U.S. will set a new record for oil ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 10, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Trade War Winners and Losers The confrontation between the U.S. and China has been altering the global economy for the last two years. As with any reorganization of the status quo there are changes that benefit some and changes that damage others. The pace of global growth h...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 7, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Where Was the Good and Bad News in the Employment Numbers? The number of jobs added was more than had been predicted—225,000 as opposed to the expected 160,000. The breakdown of where jobs were gained and lost was of the most interest and significance. The big gains were in ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 5, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Trade Gap Reduced Last Year There is good news and bad news as far as the trade deficit is concerned. For the first time in six years, the gap has narrowed. The problem is this reduction in the size of the deficit was the result of reduced imports, which occurred from the im...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for February 3, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Watch the PMI Data The manufacturing sector worldwide has been drifting deeper and deeper into recession territory. Today, the latest set of purchasing managers' data will be released for many of these countries. There is a universal expectation that the news will be bad, bu...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 31, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Consumer Slowdown The latest data on consumers is not exactly bad, but it isn't all that good either. For the last few years, it has been the consumer driving the economic progress in the U.S. Anything that suggests this run could be coming to an end will worry the manufacturers, t...
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