Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 13, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—What Worries the Fed? The commentary from some of the regional Fed officials would suggest the Fed has the same concerns as have been expressed in previous years despite the fact there is no imminent risk that would require immediate action. Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 10, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Women in Ascendance For the first time in a decade, women make up the majority of the workforce. This is not the first time that women have held this position, but the situation is far different from the last time this was the case. In the past, it was due to the fact men we...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 8, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Do Tax Incentives Work? There is no subject that generates more controversy within economic development circles than the effectiveness of the tax incentive. The logic seems sound enough at first glance. A city or state wants to attract a major employer to choose them. To lur...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for January 6, 2020

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Can the Fed React to a Recession Threat? One of the consistent concerns expressed over the historically low interest rates is they have fallen so far that the Fed no longer has the tools it needs to deal with a recession should one appear. The traditional means by which the ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 30, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Will Business Investment Bounce Back?— Much of the progress for the economy this past year has been due to the activity within the consumer sector. Consumers have been reacting to the good job numbers and the lack of inflation. The news has not been as good as far as the bus...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 23, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Durable Goods Slide— Most of the news from the consumer has been pretty solid of late. There have been good retail numbers and consumer confidence has remained strong. That hardly means there is nothing for the dismal scientists to worry about. The latest data on durable goods show...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 20, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—US Economy—Even the Doves Are Satisfied— It has been no shock that various hawks on the Fed's Open Market Committee have been calling for an end to the lowering of rates—Esther George and Eric Rosengren have dissented against the cuts three times in the last several months. There had bee...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 18, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Industrial Activity Recovers— The industrial production numbers include three sectors that do not always move in lockstep. The biggest part of the measurement concerns manufacturing. Of late, this sector has been slowing down. The other two categories include mining (which i...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 16, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Too Much Collateral—Too Little Cash— The repo market is largely unfamiliar with the general public, but it is certainly important to the banking system. This is the system banks use to do short-term loans. The banks borrow money overnight to handle the day's obligations and ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 9, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—A Giant Has Passed— The news started off with a depressing note. Paul Volcker has passed away at the tender age of 92. It is hard to argue that there has been a more influential Fed chairman in modern times and very few economists with the reach he had. As recently as a year...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 6, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—No Shocks Expected in Today's Jobs Data— By the time you read this, the jobs numbers will have been released and you will know whether the economists have any idea about what is going on in the economy. The expectation is there will have been some solid job gains and the ove...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 4, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Few Takers for Expanded Offshore Drilling— A year or so ago, there was a statement from the White House that suggested the U.S. was going to go full tilt towards more offshore drilling. There was limited enthusiasm from the energy sector as there has been a decline in demand...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for December 3, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Services Domination Shrinks— The U.S. has long run a deficit when it comes to goods. The fact is U.S. consumers want low prices and lots of variety and have long availed themselves of the global output. At the same time, the U.S. has run a surplus with almost every nation wh...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for November 27, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Are Investors in Fantasy Land?— Once again, the markets are setting records. This baffles those who still insist there is a connection between the status of the economy and the markets. There has been a steady drumbeat of down economic data—reduced industrial output, weaker ...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for November 25, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Markets Hoping for the Best— Investors appear to be a happy and confident lot these days as they continue to believe everything is going to turn out just fine. There have been ample signals as to the potential for a serious slowdown and maybe even a full-fledged recession, b...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for November 22, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, PH.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—American Mobility Declines— Once upon a time, the U.S. was characterized as one of the most mobile societies in the world. It was a driver of the economy in a variety of ways. It meant people were willing to relocate for jobs and that there was a vibrancy in the economy whic...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for November 20, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Another Round of Stopgap Funding— The government shutdown will be averted once again, but there is still no real budget in place. The decision was made to pass another short-term extension and keep the government functioning through December 20. The Senate will take up the H...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for November 18, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Where Is the Wage Inflation?— One of the laments from the economic community has been the apparent demise of the Philips Curve. This tool has been around since the 1950s. It stated logically enough that when the rate of unemployment fell, there would be wage inflation as the...
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Global Growth to Slow in 2020–21

Global growth is expected to remain at a slow pace during the next two years. However, Moody's Investors Services predicts the global economy will not see a recession during that time (2020–21). Yet, the economy would be "more vulnerable to negative developments" during this time of lower growth and inflation, states Moody's Global Macro Outlook re...
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Strategic Global Intelligence Brief for November 11, 2019

By Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., NACM Economist—Short Items of Interest—U.S. Economy—Going Underwater on Vehicles— The homeowner was once the greatest risk as far as going underwater on a loan. It was not uncommon for people to buy a house at a price that was not maintained. By the time they decided to sell that home, it was worth less than when they bought ...
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