Despite the darkening economic outlook, Italy is expecting positive economic news in the coming weeks, according to Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, as data on public finances will be published in early March.

The news comes after the nation’s commitment to bringing their budget deficit below the European Union’s 3% of GDP ceiling by 2026, according to Reuters, a decrease from 2024’s target of 3.8% of GDP.

The country’s economic activity weakened at the end of 2024, with the third and fourth quarters seeing a stagnate GDP.

Last December marked the biggest monthly fall in industrial output since January 2022, according to Reuters, with a 3.1% drop in December and an overall 7.1% drop year-on-year from the same month. As the third largest economy in the eurozone, Italy’s economic woes pose a risk to nearby countries that are reliant on their shared trading relationship.

Overall, the Italian economy grew by 0.5% in 2024, a meager showing that does not bode well for the nation facing a large fiscal deficit. Economists forecast 0.7% growth, lagging behind the nation’s official target of 1.2%.

Projections fail to capture anxieties within Italian industry as the United States President Donald Trump promised tariffs throughout his presidential campaign. Italy has a large trade surplus with the United States leaving it very susceptible to damage if the president follows through on his campaign promise.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has a strong relationship with Trump which she believes could allow her to deescalate a potential trade war with the United States.

It remains to be seen how positive the public finance data will be. Italy’s statistics bureau will release the full year 2024 data related to the budget deficit and public debt on March 3. “I always reiterated that the surprise would relate to public finance data,” Giorgetti told the Italian senate. “I think that in a few weeks this will be confirmed.”

According to FCIB’s Credit and Collections survey, of the credit managers with customers in Italy, 82% are existing customers and 18% are new. These customers are on average 10 days beyond terms. Around 46% of credit managers extend credit on 1–30-day terms while 27% extend credit on 31-60-day terms.

Around 9% extend on 61–90-day terms while 18% do not extend credit at all. According to respondents, wire transfer is the most common payment method (91%), followed by Electronic Funds Transfer (46%) and check (9%).

Payment delays seem steady, if increasing a bit. According to 33% of survey respondents payment delays are increasing, but 44% find that they are not experiencing delays and 22% find the delays to be staying the same. A whopping 80% of respondents attribute delays to billing disputes. Another 40% blame customer’s payment policy, often meaning that customers have a set day of the month that they pay that does not align with contract terms. Additionally, respondents blame cultural norms (20%) and cashflow issues (20%).One respondent wrote, “Although there is a positive history, it is still a country at risk.” Another added, “Be sure to have a billing SOP prior to performing service.”