➦ Is the Fed behind the curve?
Just as US inflation concerns moved into the rearview, the labor market started sending worrying signals, with the July jobs report triggering the Sahm rule—a widely-followed recession indicator. And this has come alongside growing concerns about the health of the US consumer as well as increased signs of weakness in the manufacturing sector. While Chair Powell clearly signaled a dovish pivot at Jackson Hole, whether the Fed has waited too long to cut rates amid this more worrying macro backdrop—and what that means for US recession risk—is Top of Mind.

➦ How investable is Europe?
Just as Europe emerged from two years of stagnation, recent weak survey data, increased political risk in light of the European Parliament and French election outcomes and, more crucially, the prospect of heightened trade and security risks depending on the US election outcome — all on top of daunting structural issues — have put the region’s outlook back in question. Just how significant Europe’s cyclical, political, and structural challenges are — and what that means for Europe’s investability — is Top of Mind.

➦ Gen AI: too much spend, too little benefit?
The promise of generative AI technology to transform companies, industries, and societies is leading tech giants and beyond to spend an estimated ~$1tn on capex in coming years, including significant investments in data centers, chips, other AI infrastructure, and the power grid. But this spending has little to show for it so far. Whether this large spend will ever pay off in terms of AI benefits and returns, and the implications for economies, companies, and markets if it does—or if it doesn’t—is Top of Mind.

➦ Central bank divergence: room to run?
Resilient US growth and a series of upside US inflation surprises to start the year have led markets to now expect the Fed to cut interest rates later and more gradually than most G10 central banks. How far central bank divergence could run, and the implications for economies and markets, is Top of Mind.

➦ Weighing the GLP-1 market
The newest generation of GLP-1 drugs are being hailed by some as “miracle drugs” for the treatment of obesity. But GLP-1s are expensive, insurance coverage is limited, and not everyone with obesity can or wants to take them. Just how large the addressable market for GLP-1s actually is, and what that means for the drug companies developing them, other exposed industries, and the wider economy, is Top of Mind.