The Mexican economy experienced a slow start to the year, contracting by 0.8% in the first quarter. This decline followed a 0.9% quarter-over-quarter growth in the last three months of 2025, according to Mexico News Daily. Despite this slowdown, Mexico’s finance ministry maintained its 2026 economic growth forecast at the end of April, per Reuters, predicting a 1.8% to 2.8% growth in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). 

Mexican Finance Minister Edgar Amador noted that changes in global trade policy caused major supply chain disruptions, indirectly impacting the manufacturing industries as well as overall consumer and business sentiment. “Those changes have generated a greater degree of uncertainty that has affected both consumption and investment decisions,” Amador told Reuters. 

Mexico’s manufacturing orders fell in April on a monthly and annual basis following a rebound in March, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), per a T21 report. 

“During the period, the Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM) stood at 50.6 units, which meant a monthly decline of 0.6 points in April of this year, compared to the previous month,” the T21 report read. “The IPM, which presents the expectations and perception of business executives on the performance of the manufacturing sector in Mexico, also registered a negative figure in its annual measurement, with a decrease of 0.2 units.” 

Economists predict mild stagflation for Mexico in 2026, held back by uncertainty over its trade deal with the U.S. ‌and Canada. “Mexico should begin to emerge from the current period of near-stagnation and relatively high inflation next year, the poll showed,” reads a Reuters report. “Grupo Banorte economists wrote in a report on Friday they were optimistic about trade as well as positive effects from the football World Cup in June-July, and expected an acceleration in public investment. However, consensus forecasts for average annual inflation rose to 4.0% from 3.8% this year and to 3.8% from 3.7% in 2027, partly due to the impact of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran on energy prices.” 

Amid sluggish economic conditions, Mexican businesses remain resilient. From January to April, credit professionals noticed an improvement in average days beyond terms for Mexican customers, dropping from 25 to 13, according to the FCIB’s Credit and Collections Survey. 

Survey respondents saw no noticeable change in payment delays with their Mexican counterparts with 29% still seeing an increase in April. Most recently, delays are driven by cash flow issues as well as cultural norms and customs (31%) followed by billing disputes (25%). 

“Collecting unpaid debts in Mexico is challenging, time consuming and may require travel and hiring local legal counsel,” one respondent wrote. “Tight follow-up is necessary to ensure payments are timely,” wrote another. 

“Make it clear that your payment terms apply solely to your transaction and are not tied to the terms your customer extends to their own clients,” a respondent advised.