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United States sees stable economy, but increasingly fraught trade relationships

The United States grew at the fastest pace in two years from July to September last year, largely due to strong consumer spending. The nation’s gross domestic product rose at a 4.4% annual pace in the third quarter, according to the AP, up from 3.8% in the second quarter and outpacing initial projections.

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The United States grew at the fastest pace in two years from July to September last year, largely due to strong consumer spending. The nation’s gross domestic product rose at a 4.4% annual pace in the third quarter, according to the AP, up from 3.8% in the second quarter and outpacing initial projections.

Consumer spending grew at a 3.5% pace, with a 3.6% increase in healthcare spending and a 3% jump in goods spending.  The surge in exports and drop in imports contributed to the robust numbers. The economy remains strong despite the uncertainty sparked by the tariffs introduced at the start of 2025. Economists believe that economic activity reflects a K-shape pattern, according to Reuters, with higher-income households and big corporations boosting spending.

Despite the strong economic report and high consumer spending, the job market looks weak. Employers added only 28,000 jobs a month since March, per the AP, with unemployment rate sitting at 4.4%, suggesting a no-hire, no-fire labor market. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, per Reuters, but investors are still anxious to hear what is next.

U.S. stocks fell in mid-January, as geopolitical tensions decreased investors’ risk appetite, according to Reuters. U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements signaling possible tariffs on European nations until Washington was granted permission to buy Greenland was met with a more tepid stock market. Conversely, safe-haven flows persisted, with gold selling at a record high.

The increasingly fraught relationship between the U.S. and its European allies has led to a shift in the world economic order with the U.S. becoming a riskier trade partner. While stocks around the world fell this week, the U.S. saw the sharpest declines with the Dow Jones Industrial retreating 1.8%, the S&P 500 dropping 2.1% and Nasdaq falling 2.4%, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“The U.S. is plainly for a lot of international investors becoming a less friendly place to do business with, and that is likely to have an impact on investment decisions going forward,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank, per the Wall Street Journal.

Of the credit managers with customers in the U.S., 74% are offering 1-30-day terms, 23% are offering 31-60-day terms and 3% are offering 61-90-day terms, according to FCIB’s Credit and Collections Survey. Credit managers extending credit in the U.S. are largely seeing payment delays staying the same, with 38% seeing an increase. On average, customers are 15 days beyond terms, with delays largely attributed to billing disputes (70%), cash flow issues (69%), inability to pay (47%) and customer payment policy (36%).

Credit managers largely secured payments from U.S. customers using check (92%), wire transfer (80%), EFT (72%) and credit card (59%). “Try to move all customers to ACH payments,” one respondent advised.

“More customers are pushing to extend payment terms,” another respondent noted. “Protect these as if your cash flow depends on it, because it does.”


Lucy Hubbard, editorial associate

Lucy Hubbard graduated from the University of Maryland in May 2024 with a B.A. in multi-platform journalism and minors in creative writing and history. She previously wrote for Capital News Service in Annapolis, covering Maryland politics and transportation issues. Additionally, she wrote for Maryland Today, Girls’ Life Magazine and Montgomery Community Media. Outside of work, she loves reading, baking and yoga. Feel free to reach out with ideas, questions or comments at lucyh@nacm.org.