Ukraine and Israel aid continues to stall in Congress

After a very brief ‘shutdown’ in the wee hours of Saturday, March 23, Congress finally got its work done to fund the government. Neither Democrats nor Republicans were particularly pleased with the outcome; the hallmark of a successful compromise. Unfortunately for Speaker Mike Johnson, who currently has a one-vote majority in the House and a small but vocal faction of his Caucus that has threatened to oust him, this isn’t something he can just brush over.

All of this sets the stage for what is next on Congress’s docket: foreign aid for Ukraine and Israel.

When it was first proposed—more than six months ago—Ukraine was running out of ammunition, Israel had just suffered its worst terrorist attack in decades, and the crisis at our southern border had reached the point where even the Biden Administration admitted they needed additional funding to manage the situation. Israel aid and new border security funding was supposed to be a carrot for House Republicans who have soured on providing any additional aid to Ukraine. This turned out to be a miscalculation from the Biden Administration, as Republicans gave his proposal a firm ‘no thanks.’

In response, Senate Republicans, who are generally more supportive of aid to Ukraine, attempted to negotiate a bipartisan border security bill that could get conservative support for the entire package. What emerged from this was the ill-fated attempt at a bipartisan border security and asylum reform bill led by Senators Lankford, Murphy and Sinema. While an agreement was eventually reached between the Senators and the White House, former President Donald Trump and conservative hardliners killed the package before it was ever allowed a vote.

That process took months, and since then, the political landscape has gotten even more complicated. What was once a slam dunk and a deal sweetener, Israel aid is now fraught on the Democratic side, with progressives looking to make aid to Israel conditional on humanitarian assistance for Palestinians and updated rules of engagement from Israel. And, despite Russia making the first military gains in Ukraine in months, Congressional Republicans continue to largely oppose sending any additional new aid.

In short—a ‘clean’ foreign aid bill might not even have the votes it needs to pass in the House and Senate, assuming that Speaker Johnson is willing to gamble his speakership on allowing such a vote in the first place.

Already, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has filed a motion to vacate, but she has not yet taken the necessary steps to force a vote on the motion. If Speaker Johnson decides to move forward with Ukraine aid, he could be forced to rely on Democrats to give him enough votes to keep his job. Going down that road would likely begin a death spiral for his speakership, however, as Democratic support would only persist for so long, while conservative rancor would get worse and worse.

Looking at my crystal ball, I would still favor some aid package getting passed before the end of the year. Not only are there still a few ‘must-pass’ bills with broad support in Congress, such as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), that could act as a vehicle for aid, but Congressional leadership continues to largely support aid for Ukraine and Israel. With their support, and the still not insignificant power of more ‘establishment-minded’ Members and Senators, getting an aid package across the finish line is still very doable; just not anytime soon.