October CMI sees recovery, but comments are “starkly negative”

NACM’s seasonally adjusted combined Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) for October 2025 improved 2.1 points to 54.5. “The index recovered most of last month’s drop and remains in expansion, but the statements made by respondents are worrying,” said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE. “The respondent comments are starkly negative, citing increased business failures and bankruptcies, lien filings and demands for extended terms.”

The Index for Unfavorable Factors improved 1.6 points, sitting at 50.4 points after being in contraction last month.

• Disputes slipped 0.3 points to 48.8 while the largest decline was in the Filings for Bankruptcies Index, dropping 2.0 points to 50.3.
• Despite improving 3.7 points, the Factor for Accounts Placed for Collections has remained in contraction for 37 of the past 38 months.
• The number of accounts placed for collections at respondent firms has increased every month for nearly three years except for June of this year.

The Index for Favorable Factors remains in expansion after improving 3.0 points to 60.7.

• The Factor for Dollar Sales gained 8.5 points, recovering about 80% of the drop in the September survey.
• The Factor for Dollar Collections from both due and past due accounts gained 7.6 points to 64.1.

What they’re saying:

• “We are seeing a huge rise in the 1-30 and 31-60 aging. Customers that have never been in this situation before are now slow paying or asking for help with a payment plan. We are also seeing a rise in disputes. Customers who took stocking orders to prepare for their busy season are now asking to return what they have left.”
• “This is eerily similar to the 2007/2008 dramatic slowdown in orders. Numerous accounts have been placed on hold for payment. Instead of placing one or two accounts for collection, we’re sending five to seven at a time, and we’re receiving multiple bankruptcies in a month rather than just one as normal.”
• “We are already starting to see the effects of uncertainty in the market delayed payments at the top of the chain, delays in starting/cancellation of mid-size projects, and issues on Federal projects.”
• “We’ve had more credit applications come in that have only qualified for credit card terms than in recent months. While we haven’t seen a large uptick (yet) of bankruptcies, we have seen more excuses being made by customers for late payments, asking for extended terms, delaying payment for multiple reasons, etc.”

Read the full CMI report here.