➦ Germany hat es geschafft, US consumer (still) holding strong and why markets not buying the “America First”
Germany: Unleashing defense and infrastructure spending.

➦ The corporate battlefield: Global insolvencies in times of war economics
After surging by +10% in 2024, our Global Insolvency index is set to rise by +6% in 2025 and +3% in 2026 as the delayed easing of interest rates and increased uncertainties keep companies under pressure.

➦ Sub-Saharan Africa, the first victim of the USAID reduction
On 10 March, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, announced the end of the program review by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). 83% of aid has been cut and many African countries will be impacted.

➦ Bosnia and Herzegovina: Heightened tensions and destabilising risks after Serb entity’s leader is sentenced to jail and barred from politics
On 26 February, Bosnia’s top court sentenced Milorad Dodik, Republika Srpska’s president (‘RS’ – the Serb majority entity of the Bosnian federation), to one year in jail and to a six-year ban from the RS presidency.

➦ Mongolia: A gradual macroeconomic improvement drives an upgrade in the MLT political risk to 6/7
Mongolia has been on a bumpy road since spring 2017, when it was bailed out by multilateral and bilateral creditors to avoid a sovereign debt default.