➦ Unlocking Eurozone consumer confidence, the ECB’s next rate cut and the CORE problem for Europe’s auto sector
Eurozone: Confidence is key (to unlock consumption). Private consumption is still lagging behind economic growth, despite declining interest rates and recovering real wages.

➦ The geoeconomic playbook of global trade
A renewed but contained trade war could cost global trade growth 0.6pp in 2026, while a full-blown trade war would cost up to 2.4pps.

➦ The cost of uncertainty in Germany, the finishing touch of the Chinese stimulus and all eyes on Brazil while this COP is in Baku
Germany: what’s next? Snap elections are set for 23 February 2025 but Germany urgently needs greater stability and reduced uncertainty to ward off economic stagnation.

➦ The return of Donald Trump and the implications of a Republican Sweep scenario
Inflation, GDP and Fed Funds outlook: President Trump’s victory at the US elections and the likely full Republican control of the Congress do not change our forecasts for US GDP much, with fiscal loosening likely to broadly offset growth-negative factors.

➦ GenAI in the insurance industry: Divine coincidence for human capital
Who’s afraid of GenAI? While experts predict substantial positive economic effects from the rise of generative artificial intelligence, public sentiment is not so optimistic.

➦ Olympic Games: The economics of hosting the biggest sporting event in the world
The Olympic Games Paris 2024 are just around the corner, and the fervor is already palpable. When I asked my team at Allianz Research whether they wanted to do something on the economics of the Olympics (not the costs, which have unfortunately become Parisians’ latest obsession), there was a resounding yes.

➦ French elections round two, the political tide turns in the UK and globetrotters driving the tourism rebound
This week, we look at three critical issues

➦ Securing critical infrastructure: the two-for-one of green investment
In a world of mounting geopolitical tensions and intensifying climate change, critical infrastructure is particularly at risk of disruption.

➦ Country and sector risk updates, transition risks for real estate and the good, the bad and the ugly of French elections for markets
This week, we look at three critical issues

➦ Mid-year Economic Outlook 2024-25: Games wide open?
Q2 2024 updated economic and capital markets outlook

➦ European Commission plays bad cop, the fiscal pinch of the left in France and overcapacities in China
European Commission plays bad cop on fiscal deficits. France, Italy, Poland, Belgium, Hungary, Slovakia and Malta have been named and shamed for running fiscal deficits above -3% of GDP.

➦ Industrial policy: old dog, new tricks?
Industrial policies and subsidies are back with a bang, especially in major economies such as the US, China, India, Germany and Brazil.

➦ Snap elections in France, the equity risk premium puzzle, the end of the Fed conundrum?
This week, we look at three critical issues:

➦ Climate change and the double impact of aging
The direct effects of climate change include increased injuries due to extreme weather events such as floods, storms and cyclones, forest fires or heat waves.

➦ ECB easing begins, taking stock of NGEU, no turbulence for the airline industry’s bottom line
This week we look at three critical issues.

➦ Elections (UK), Elections (Mexico) and Elections (South Africa)
This week we look at the economic consequences of three electoral moments:

➦ Allianz Pulse 2024: What unites and separates the demos of Europe
Ahead of the decisive elections on 6-9 June, the 6th edition of our Allianz Pulse survey finds huge divisions in views of the EU. We asked 6,000 people in the large member countries Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland, as well as Austria, about their views on political and economic issues, and their outlook for the future.

➦ US commercial real estate and the Fed, oil price roller coaster and corporate optimism returns after Q1 earnings
This week we look at three critical issues:

➦ Allianz Global Insurance Report 2024: Transformative years ahead for the insurance sector
According to the Allianz Global Insurance report, the global insurance industry grew by an estimated 7.5% in 2023, clocking the fastest growth since 2006, the year before the GFC.

➦ US-China tariffs dilemma for Europe, one culprit for sticky US inflation and Central European central banks take a break
This week we look at three critical issues:

➦ Allianz Trade Survey 2024: Protectionism Mithridatism
Mithridatism: after the trade recession, exporters are more optimistic in 2024 but also more concerned with (and also more used to?) geopolitical risks, shortages of inputs and labor and financing and non-payment risks.

➦ Higher rates by a fiscal thread, good Eurozone news before the Eurovision, and delayed normalization for cross-asset correlations
This week we look at three critical issues:

➦ Ashes to ashes, carbon to soil
The biodiversity financing gap exists mainly due to a knowledge gap: the valuation of ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are the direct and indirect contributions ecosystems (known as natural capital) provide for human wellbeing and quality of life. This can be in a practical sense, such as providing food and water or regulating the climate. We understand that the productivity and regulatory functions of ecosystems are of great value to our economic sectors, but we have little understanding of the price tag of this value, let alone the abatement costs (and benefits) of declining ecosystem services.