Economy Archive

Under any circumstance, it is difficult to predict where the economy will be in the coming weeks, months or years. With ongoing trade wars between the United States and major trade allies and fluctuating tariffs that are subject to change at a moment’s notice, it can be even harder. 

A recent contraction in the United States’ gross domestic product (GDP) is raising concerns for economists and credit managers as an early sign of recession. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures continue to weaken consumer sentiment, further contributing to a decline in market wealth. 

Credit managers are no strangers to change, with economies always fluctuating and markets changing at the drop of a hat. When it comes to the value of the U.S. Dollar, fluctuation can be more complex and create complications in international trade, leaving credit managers at odds with their customers overseas. 

Tariffs have long been a tool of international trade policy, used by countries to influence economic relationships and protect domestic industries. However, they can also result in higher prices for consumers and provoke retaliation from other nations—actions that may weaken exports and slow economic growth. When countries impose tariffs or other trade barriers on one another, it can escalate into what is known as a trade war.  

As challenging economic conditions plague all areas of the market, the agricultural industry appears to be consistently slumping as it endures a multi-year trough, testing the patience of credit managers across the industry.  

Commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings increased 20% year-over-year in March 2025. “The 20% rise in commercial Chapter 11 filings to 733, up from 611 last year, signals persistent economic pressure, mirrored by a 10% increase in total commercial filings to 2,727,” said Michael Hunter, Vice President of Epiq AACER.  

President Trump’s trade war is officially on. However, in an extraordinary reversal just hours after they were set to go into effect, the President delayed the implementation of extremely harsh reciprocal tariffs on over 60 countries. That leaves in place the April 4th 10% across-the-board tariffs but gives the world time to breathe and react.

Bob Dylan famously sang, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” The market started the new year on a roller coaster, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high, then selling off on news of a fresh AI model from China. Many reacted by buying the dip in AI stocks, and the S&P 500 closed the month with a 2.7% gain. Mid-cap stocks outperformed their large-cap peers while small-cap continued to lag.