Economy Archive

NACM’s March Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) improved to its highest reading since 2023 with a jump of 2.5 points. Why it matters: Now sitting at 54.9, the Survey indicates some relief for the business economy. “The CMI seems to be picking up some steam, with a second month of improvement and a breakout of the tight band in which it had been for eight months,” said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.

The U.S. economy kicked off 2024 powerfully. Business activity, labor markets, sentiment and inflation indicators have been trending favorably. Yet, we must stay vigilant as rising consumer debt and high interest rates threaten to slow down economic growth.

It’s a new month and the good news is that Congress finally passed a government funding bill that lasts through September; unfortunately, it’s only half of the government.

Rising labor costs, new environmental regulations and a mixed outlook on construction volume present significant challenges to the industry. However, declining fuel costs and controlled inflation offer some relief.

NACM’s February Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) remains stubbornly close to contraction territory despite improving 1.3 points to 52.4. “We did not fall into formal recession in 2023 and we might not in 2024, but for many credit managers, it’s as if a recession is well underway,” said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.

The agricultural economy is expected to significantly expand by 2024. However, potential obstacles such as increasing production costs from inflation and high interest rates, fluctuating market prices, climate change and global crises like the Russian-Ukraine conflict may hinder this growth.

After a brief respite of bipartisanship in January, the border security and foreign aid package is officially dead in the water, and the Senate’s busy legislative calendar has effectively stalled the bipartisan tax package that the House passed last week. In other words, everything is back to normal in D.C. On Wednesday, Jan. 31, the House passed, by a strong margin of 357-70, a bipartisan tax package that extended the increased child tax credit for another two years as well as several business tax provisions that were part of the Trump tax cuts in 2017. Most notably:

Declining 1.4 points to 51.1, NACM’s January Credit Managers’ Index continues to point to weakness in the business economy. The fluctuation in the CMI suggests that the business economy is experiencing instability rather than a clear downward trend. “The CMI continues to show considerable weakness but without a deliberate trend other than bouncing around just above the contraction threshold,” said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.