13 September 2024
This week we look at four critical issues. ➦ Long-run capital market returns in times of climate change
Lessons from the American playbook
06 September 2024
This week we look at three critical issues. ➦ Sector Atlas 2024: the outpriced, the outcasts and the outliers
Heavy political agenda to test global economic resilience once more. Global growth bottomed out in H1, but the global manufacturing sector is still in excess supply, and demand remains sluggish especially in the Eurozone.
02 August 2024
This week we look at three critical issues ➦ Sustainable ocean
“How inappropriate to call this planet Earth when it is clearly Ocean.”
Arthur C. Clarke
26 July 2024
This week we look at three critical issues ➦ Metals and mining: Do we live in a material world?
Though demand for metals is skyrocketing, uncertainty, price volatility and CAPEX needs make companies very cautious.
19 July 2024
This week we look at three critical issues
➦ GenAI in the insurance industry: Divine coincidence for human capital
Who’s afraid of GenAI? While experts predict substantial positive economic effects from the rise of generative artificial intelligence, public sentiment is not so optimistic.
12 July 2024
This week we look at four critical issues
➦ Olympic Games: The economics of hosting the biggest sporting event in the world
The Olympic Games Paris 2024 are just around the corner, and the fervor is already palpable. When I asked my team at Allianz Research whether they wanted to do something on the economics of the Olympics (not the costs, which have unfortunately become Parisians’ latest obsession), there was a resounding yes.
05 July 2024
➦ French elections round two, the political tide turns in the UK and globetrotters driving the tourism rebound
This week, we look at three critical issues
➦ Securing critical infrastructure: the two-for-one of green investment
In a world of mounting geopolitical tensions and intensifying climate change, critical infrastructure is particularly at risk of disruption.
28 June 2024
➦ Country and sector risk updates, transition risks for real estate and the good, the bad and the ugly of French elections for markets
This week, we look at three critical issues
➦ Mid-year Economic Outlook 2024-25: Games wide open?
Q2 2024 updated economic and capital markets outlook
21 June 2024
➦ European Commission plays bad cop, the fiscal pinch of the left in France and overcapacities in China
European Commission plays bad cop on fiscal deficits. France, Italy, Poland, Belgium, Hungary, Slovakia and Malta have been named and shamed for running fiscal deficits above -3% of GDP.
➦ Industrial policy: old dog, new tricks?
Industrial policies and subsidies are back with a bang, especially in major economies such as the US, China, India, Germany and Brazil.
14 June 2024
➦ Snap elections in France, the equity risk premium puzzle, the end of the Fed conundrum?
This week, we look at three critical issues:
➦ Climate change and the double impact of aging
The direct effects of climate change include increased injuries due to extreme weather events such as floods, storms and cyclones, forest fires or heat waves.
07 June 2024
➦ ECB easing begins, taking stock of NGEU, no turbulence for the airline industry’s bottom line
This week we look at three critical issues.
31 May 2024
➦ Elections (UK), Elections (Mexico) and Elections (South Africa)
This week we look at the economic consequences of three electoral moments:
➦ Allianz Pulse 2024: What unites and separates the demos of Europe
Ahead of the decisive elections on 6-9 June, the 6th edition of our Allianz Pulse survey finds huge divisions in views of the EU. We asked 6,000 people in the large member countries Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland, as well as Austria, about their views on political and economic issues, and their outlook for the future.
24 May 2024
➦ US commercial real estate and the Fed, oil price roller coaster and corporate optimism returns after Q1 earnings
This week we look at three critical issues:
➦ Allianz Global Insurance Report 2024: Transformative years ahead for the insurance sector
According to the Allianz Global Insurance report, the global insurance industry grew by an estimated 7.5% in 2023, clocking the fastest growth since 2006, the year before the GFC.
17 May 2024
➦ US-China tariffs dilemma for Europe, one culprit for sticky US inflation and Central European central banks take a break
This week we look at three critical issues:
➦ Allianz Trade Survey 2024: Protectionism Mithridatism
Mithridatism: after the trade recession, exporters are more optimistic in 2024 but also more concerned with (and also more used to?) geopolitical risks, shortages of inputs and labor and financing and non-payment risks.
03 May 2024
➦ Higher rates by a fiscal thread, good Eurozone news before the Eurovision, and delayed normalization for cross-asset correlations
This week we look at three critical issues:
➦ Ashes to ashes, carbon to soil
The biodiversity financing gap exists mainly due to a knowledge gap: the valuation of ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are the direct and indirect contributions ecosystems (known as natural capital) provide for human wellbeing and quality of life. This can be in a practical sense, such as providing food and water or regulating the climate. We understand that the productivity and regulatory functions of ecosystems are of great value to our economic sectors, but we have little understanding of the price tag of this value, let alone the abatement costs (and benefits) of declining ecosystem services.