Moldova is an emerging, upper-middle-income economy that is heavily dependent on agriculture and remittances, with significant exposure to regional geopolitical shocks. Following an economic rebound to 2.4% growth in 2025, fueled by increased domestic demand and agriculture, gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow.

“…The new energy shock stemming from the war in the Middle East is reducing growth and raising inflation,” reads an IMF press release. “Growth this year is expected to slow to 1.5%, as higher energy costs and weaker external demand will constrain consumption, investment and exports. Average inflation is projected to reach 8.1% in 2026, while the current account deficit is projected to widen to 22.1% of GDP.”

Given its dependence on Russian energy, Moldova’s economy faced profound difficulties following the Russo-Ukrainian war, with real GDP contracting by 4.6% in 2022, per the European Parliament. A decline in remittances further contributed to macroeconomic instability and a decrease in purchasing power.

After exiting the Russian-led CIS Alliance, Moldova redirected its focus toward Western economies and European integration to offset trade disruptions from the war in Ukraine and fund the structural reforms necessary to meet EU accession criteria by 2030.

“Negotiations began in June 2024, and so far, Moldova has completed the screening of 28 out of 33 acquis chapters, showing significant legislative progress,” reads the European Parliament report. “The Moldova Growth Plan, a EUR 1.9 billion package of grants and concessional loans for 2025–2027, links disbursements to strict reform benchmarks in the rule of law, public administration, energy and infrastructure.”

Moldovan customers are paying an average of six days beyond terms, and delays are trending upward, according to FCIB’s Credit and Collections Survey. The causes of these delays vary and include customer payment policies, cash flow issues, billing disputes and a customer’s unwillingness or inability to pay.

Beyond those factors, credit professionals are also noting the influence of cultural norms and customs, central bank restrictions, foreign exchange rate fluctuations and government approval requirements on payment timelines.

Respondents offered pointed advice for those doing business in the region. “Know your customer by verifying the customer before shipping,” one wrote. “Coverage from providers like EXIM or private insurers can protect against both commercial and political non-payment risk,” added another.

The broader risk environment also drew caution. “Moldova has high political and economic volatility given its proximity to Ukraine and its internal political divisions,” one respondent warned. “Currency fluctuations and sudden policy shifts can affect a buyer’s ability to pay.”