The Senate leadership election that could shape the 2025-26 legislative agenda

While the outcome of the election, and which party is in control of the House, Senate and Presidency, is justifiably the main focus of the general public, for Washington insiders, there is a critical election coming up later in November that will have almost as much impact—who will replace Mitch McConnell as the next leader of the Senate GOP. Three Senators are actively running for the position: John Thune (SD), John Cornyn (TX) and Rick Scott (FL).

Overall, the Senate GOP leadership election is shaping up to look a lot like the House GOP leadership election in 2022. There are a few hardline conservative senators, led by Senator Mike Lee (UT), who are pushing for a change to GOP conference rules to ultimately weaken the power of the GOP leader in favor of empowering more conservative viewpoints.

First elected in 2007, McConnell followed the example of Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid by exerting absolute control over what bills, amendments and votes were allowed on the Senate floor. He continued the practice known as “filling the amendment tree,” which uses parliamentary procedure to effectively prevent individual senators from amending legislation, or even calling for votes on specific amendments, on the Senate floor. Senate Republicans have been avoiding votes that might alienate moderate voters. The strategy has angered conservatives like Senators Mike Lee and Josh Hawley.

On Oct. 7, Senator Lee released a list of proposals (demands), aimed at diminishing the power of the leader and allowing for a more open Senate legislative process. Among the changes proposed, Lee called for allowing the leader to fill the amendment tree only when doing so has received the support of 75% of the GOP conference. The proposal also included more nuanced recommendations, such as only allowing leadership to ‘whip’ in support of votes that the majority of the conference would support.

All three candidates have largely steered clear of addressing Lee’s proposals in public, but behind closed doors they have tentatively agreed to consider some of them, such as the amendment tree proposal. Meanwhile, McConnell has actively campaigned against rule changes that would weaken the next GOP leader, citing Speaker McCarthy and now Speaker Johnson’s struggles with similar changes in the House.

Any number of factors could delay this vote, such as key Senate races remaining undecided as votes are being counted. Here’s a quick look at each candidate and where they might stand on key NACM issues.

Senator John Thune (South Dakota)

61-year-old John Thune is the youngest of the three candidates vying to replace Mitch McConnell. He is currently the #2 Republican in Senate leadership, although Cornyn preceded him and was only required to step down due to the Republican Party’s six-year term limit on leadership positions. Notably, McConnell exempted himself from this requirement. Thune himself is a firm establishment Republican, and historically has been pro free trade. Even during President Obama’s term, Thune spoke favorably about the Trans-Pacific Partnership. On bankruptcy issues, Thune is relatively unknown, as he has not had to deal directly with the more niche policy area and does not sit on the Judiciary Committee.

Senator John Cornyn (Texas)

Senator Cornyn is extremely well-liked and is known as a pragmatic dealmaker with a strong conservative pedigree. With access to deep Texas Republican donor pockets, he has been a prolific fundraiser for the party and is likely to grow this prowess if selected as the next GOP leader. Cornyn, like Thune, is an establishment Republican, generally in favor of free trade and reducing government spending, but not at the expense of the military or disaster relief. On bankruptcy issues, he has been a strong supporter of the expedited Subchapter V process and has championed legislation that would extend the COVID-19 debt limit increase for businesses to be eligible for the more debtor-friendly system.

Senator Rick Scott (Florida)

Many in D.C. believe that Scott put his name in the ring to secure a position on the broader Republican leadership team. Recent hurricanes have made his Senate re-election race much closer than it was even in September, so it is possible he might not even win his re-election in November. Scott is the most conservative of the three candidates, and while he is far from a protectionist as former President Trump, he has been skeptical of free trade in the past. Like Thune, Scott does not sit on the Senate Judiciary Committee and does not have a well-defined record on bankruptcy issues.