Speaker Kevin McCarthy Loses His Job After Averting Shutdown

What a week. The Republican-led House continues to demonstrate that it isn’t afraid to flip the table as it attempts to redefine “business as usual” in the House. First, a recap of the shutdown showdown.

“Over the first nine months of 2023, the CMI has been bouncing around levels suggesting business activity is about to decline, up one month and down the next,” Cutts said. “At present, I think we are balanced in the overall risk of a recession starting in the next few months, but with the delayed risk of a goShutdown (or lack thereof) Recap

Speaker Kevin McCarthy, over the first two weeks of September, suffered a series of embarrassing floor votes as his own party shot down multiple strategies to keep the government open. With less than a week to the shutdown, McCarthy was forced to accede to the demands of hardline conservatives by agreeing to bring up each individual appropriation bill, despite knowing that they would be dead on arrival in the Senate and that he likely couldn’t even pass them all. After a long week, House Republicans passed three appropriations bills while another failed to pass on the floor, leaving eight to be considered with one day before the shutdown.

Meanwhile, the Senate negotiated and was poised to pass a bipartisan continuing resolution Saturday afternoon that would keep the government open through Nov. 17. With no pathway forward to reconcile the House approach and the Senate bill, a shutdown seemed imminent. The sentiment in the House was that there were 10-15 hardline conservatives who just wanted to shut down the government, while the vast majority wanted to pass the bipartisan Senate bill. However, McCarthy’s hands were tied, as many of those same conservatives promised to remove him from office if he negotiated with Democrats or put up the Senate bill for a vote.

On Saturday at 11:45am, Speaker McCarthy decided to call their bluff. He announced that the House would vote on a slightly modified version of the Senate bill under an expedited procedure that would require two-thirds of the House to vote yes. The bill was rushed to the floor, and after Democrats stalled for an hour to give their members time to review the text, it passed with a overwhelming vote of 335 to 91, far exceeding the two-thirds threshold. The Senate passed the bill later that evening and President Biden signed it in time to avert a shutdown. For now.

No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

With the government funded, Speaker McCarthy’s strategy to appease conservatives was to cancel the October recess and finish bringing up the remaining eight appropriations bills. He gambled that, in doing so, along with opening up an impeachment inquiry on President Biden which he started in September, he could hold on to his job as Speaker.

That gamble ended up backfiring. On Monday, Rep. Matt Gaetz filed the motion to vacate the Speaker, setting up a mandatory vote within two days. Democrats unified in opposition, making it clear they would not save McCarthy’s speakership. Intent on ripping off the bandaid quickly, McCarthy scheduled the vote for Tuesday, hoping to win the vote and move forward quickly.

The first sign that McCarthy was in trouble came when 11 Republicans joined all Democrats in defeating a procedural effort that would have tabled the motion to vacate. He could only afford to lose around five or six. Then, as the clerk called the roll alphabetically on the motion to vacate, McCarthy had already lost five Republicans by the C’s. From then on there were no surprises—Democrats held firm, no Republicans changed their votes, another three Republicans voted to vacate. McCarthy was officially ousted as Speaker of the House by a vote of 216-210. Later that night, in another surprise, McCarthy announced he would not seek to be re-elected as Speaker of the House, opening up the field for new candidates to run.

So … What Happens Next?

Until a new Speaker is selected, the Patrick McHenry from North Carolina will preside as Speaker Pro Tem. He announced that the House would recess until next week to give candidates time to announce, whip votes and for the Republican party to hopefully avoid another 15 vote-o-rama to decide McCarthy’s successor.

The frontrunners as of Wednesday are the current Majority Leader, Steve Scalise from Louisiana, and Chairman of the Judiciary Committee Jim Jordan from Ohio. Scalise is well established, well liked, but may not be enough of a departure from McCarthy to win over the hardline conservatives. Jordan, founder of the Freedom Caucus, is likely to win the more conservative Members of the party, but will have to work hard to convince moderates he can effectively lead the House. Others may emerge as candidates, but will have a hard time overcoming the lead and established base that Scalise and Jordan have.

Even if a new Speaker is elected next week, they will have to confront the exact same situations that brought down McCarthy in November, when the current continuing resolution expires on Nov. 17. Technically, House rules are vague on how much power McHenry has, so if the race for Speaker drags on, McHenry could temporarily lead the House through that deadline, but most think this is a long shot.

In short, we could be looking at another shutdown situation in November.