International Markets Archive

Mexico’s economic state remains impacted by several external and domestic uncertainties in addition to a recent volatility surge in the local currency market. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise 2.2% this year and 1.9% in 2025. The consensus view for next year was downgraded from a forecast of 2.1% in a January poll, according to Reuters.

The Turkish government has struggled to tame inflation for the past year. Inflation sits at 70% despite an interest rate of 50% from Turkey’s central bank. Why it matters: Turkey may be forced to sacrifice economic growth as it tries to lower inflation.

Dislocations from the pandemic, geoeconomic fragmentation, and Russia’s war in Ukraine have shifted world trade dynamics. While this has created challenges, the redirection of trade has also generated new opportunities, particularly for the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Despite higher interest rates, the Canadian economy is exceeding expectations and has dodged the predicted 2023 recession. Real GDP at basic prices grew 0.6% in January (7.4% annualized), and preliminary estimates pointed to 0.4% growth in February (4.9% annualized). This suggests that growth in the first quarter of 2024 is on track for around 3.5%, according to data from Statistics Canada.

The outlook for Asia and the Pacific in 2024 has brightened: we now expect that the region’s economy will slow less than we previously projected as inflation pressures continue to dissipate.

Economic growth in France is less than expected for this year with weaker consumer spending and investments, according to the central bank’s recent forecast. The European Commission cut its 2024 GDP growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%—as French manufacturing worsened toward the year-end of 2023.

Javier Milei, a self-described “anarcho-capitalist,” campaigned for the presidency on a platform that featured pledges to slash state spending, shrink the government, dismantle regulatory constraints on the private sector, and wage war against a corrupt political “caste” that had mismanaged Argentina into a seemingly endless series of economic crises.

Germany’s GDP growth expectations for 2024 are expected to grow only 0.1%, down from a previous estimate of 1.3% as the country is stuck in “tricky waters,” according to German Economy Minister Robert Habeck.