International Markets Archive

The U.K. economy continues to defy gloomy expectations, albeit just barely. A monthly survey of economists conducted by the U.K. Treasury shows the average forecast for GDP growth over 2024 has gone up from 0.4% in January 2024 to 0.9% in July 2024.

Egypt’s economic growth is set to be slower than expected this year after an $8 billion agreement was signed with the IMF in March, according to a Reuters poll of 17 economists. Gross domestic product (GDP) is now forecasted to grow 4%—down from a previous 4.35%.

China’s economic recovery this year has been lackluster due to production outperforming consumption. Experts say vigorous exports and favorable government policy toward manufacturing are the main contenders.

Mexico’s economic state remains impacted by several external and domestic uncertainties in addition to a recent volatility surge in the local currency market. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise 2.2% this year and 1.9% in 2025. The consensus view for next year was downgraded from a forecast of 2.1% in a January poll, according to Reuters.

The Turkish government has struggled to tame inflation for the past year. Inflation sits at 70% despite an interest rate of 50% from Turkey’s central bank. Why it matters: Turkey may be forced to sacrifice economic growth as it tries to lower inflation.

Dislocations from the pandemic, geoeconomic fragmentation, and Russia’s war in Ukraine have shifted world trade dynamics. While this has created challenges, the redirection of trade has also generated new opportunities, particularly for the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Despite higher interest rates, the Canadian economy is exceeding expectations and has dodged the predicted 2023 recession. Real GDP at basic prices grew 0.6% in January (7.4% annualized), and preliminary estimates pointed to 0.4% growth in February (4.9% annualized). This suggests that growth in the first quarter of 2024 is on track for around 3.5%, according to data from Statistics Canada.

The outlook for Asia and the Pacific in 2024 has brightened: we now expect that the region’s economy will slow less than we previously projected as inflation pressures continue to dissipate.