Economy Archive

Dollar dominance—the outsized role of the US dollar in the world economy—has been brought into focus recently as the robustness of the US economy, tighter monetary policy and heightened geopolitical risk have contributed to a higher greenback valuation. At the same time, economic fragmentation and the potential reorganization of global economic and financial activity into separate, nonoverlapping blocs could encourage some countries to use and hold other international and reserve currencies.

The Turkish government has struggled to tame inflation for the past year. Inflation sits at 70% despite an interest rate of 50% from Turkey’s central bank. Why it matters: Turkey may be forced to sacrifice economic growth as it tries to lower inflation.

A long-running domestic political battle over controversial judicial reforms receded into irrelevance on October 7, the date on which Hamas militants based in the Gaza Strip launched a coordinated assault on mostly civilian targets inside Israel that resulted in more than 1,100 deaths and the capture of more than 250 hostages. Under the direction of a special war Cabinet that includes Benny Gantz, a former head of the IDF and the leader of the opposition National Unity, which joined an expanded emergency government, Israel initiated a scorched-earth ground invasion inside Gaza in late October.

Despite higher interest rates, the Canadian economy is exceeding expectations and has dodged the predicted 2023 recession. Real GDP at basic prices grew 0.6% in January (7.4% annualized), and preliminary estimates pointed to 0.4% growth in February (4.9% annualized). This suggests that growth in the first quarter of 2024 is on track for around 3.5%, according to data from Statistics Canada.

Economic growth in France is less than expected for this year with weaker consumer spending and investments, according to the central bank’s recent forecast. The European Commission cut its 2024 GDP growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%—as French manufacturing worsened toward the year-end of 2023.

After a tumultuous election period, the Pakistani government now must deal with fallout from the country’s mount of foreign debt. The State Bank of Pakistan estimated its debt to be $124.5 billion and 42% of GDP. Though this is not extremely high based on international standards, Pakistan’s annual foreign exchange earnings through exports show that they are not enough to pay for imports.

Tight macroeconomic policies in Colombia within the last two years are likely the cause of a reduction in domestic and external imbalances seen mainly in 2021-22. The Colombian economy is expected to grow 1.8% as inflation slows 5% this year, and the central bank plans to cut its interest rate to nearly 8%, according to Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla.

While the U.S. economy seems to have avoided a recession, the forecast for 2024 remains mixed. It is no secret that inflation, labor shortages and geopolitical tensions all contribute to current economic conditions. Despite these factors, real GDP growth is expected to bounce between expansion and contraction for much of this year—showing the U.S. has reached a soft landing.