Economy Archive

Declining 1.4 points to 51.1, NACM’s January Credit Managers’ Index continues to point to weakness in the business economy. The fluctuation in the CMI suggests that the business economy is experiencing instability rather than a clear downward trend. “The CMI continues to show considerable weakness but without a deliberate trend other than bouncing around just above the contraction threshold,” said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.

In response to global conflicts, the U.S. and its allies have increased economic sanctions and enforcement measures against various countries. Businesses can minimize their exposure to these changes by regularly monitoring sanction updates, understanding applicable laws, integrating sanctions compliance into regulatory processes and strengthening Know-Your-Customer (KYC) policies. Why it matters: The noticeable surge in, attention to and enforcement of international trade requirements and regulations underscore the need for credit managers to stay vigilant and be aware of potential …

Total bankruptcy filings increased 18% year-over-year in 2023—likely due to high interest rates, maturing business loans and inflation. Chapter 11 bankruptcies increased 72% year-over-year and Subchapter V filings rose 45%, according to a report from Epiq. “While representing a substantial year-over-year increase, total bankruptcy filings remain lower than the pre-pandemic total of 757,816 recorded in CY2019,” the report reads.

It looks like Congress made a New Year’s Resolution of its own: getting its homework done on time! Congress appears to have reached a tentative deal to keep the government open and fund it through Sept. 30. This is in stark contrast to the last two times (October and November of last year) in which a last-minute extension was passed with little notice and less than a day to spare. So, the question is: what changed?

The NACM Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) ended 2023 just 0.7 above where it started the year. In December, the Index gained 0.3 to a reading of 52.6. The CMI continues to show considerable weakness but remains above the contraction threshold. “It points to considerable decline in credit conditions that are leading indicators of economic activity,” said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE. “The Fed’s aggressive stance to fight inflation has hit businesses through increased borrowing costs. The CMI is showing these stresses with higher delinquencies on accounts receivables and increa…

The holiday season is one of the most anticipated sales periods for businesses every year—and holiday spending surged to record levels over the last three years amid pandemic-era stimulus money. Despite inflationary pressures and high interest rates, spending is expected to grow between 3% and 4% to roughly $966.6 billion. Although this is a slower growth rate than the past three years, it is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The U.S. economy remains resilient with robust job growth, steady consumer spending and strong GDP growth of 4.9%—all despite one of the most highly anticipated recessions ever. However, many factors continue to weigh on the economy and have the potential to offset the positives. A recent eNews poll revealed more than two-thirds of credit professionals believe a recession is around the corner if we are not in one already, while only 31% see the chance of a soft landing.

Commercial bankruptcies have skyrocketed since the historical lows during the height of the pandemic. At 236 corporate bankruptcy filings so far this year, the number is higher than the first four months of any year since 2010 and more than double 2022 levels, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. They forecast that the U.S. default rate will rise to 4.25% by the beginning of next year, up from 2.5% currently—or to 6.5% if there is a serious recession.