Economy Archive

Bob Dylan famously sang, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” The market started the new year on a roller coaster, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high, then selling off on news of a fresh AI model from China. Many reacted by buying the dip in AI stocks, and the S&P 500 closed the month with a 2.7% gain. Mid-cap stocks outperformed their large-cap peers while small-cap continued to lag.

Tariffs, taxes or duties imposed by a government on imported or exported goods, have gained significant attention in recent months. For credit professionals, tariffs can influence trade credit terms, payment schedules and risk assessments. They may also impact the cost structure of international transactions, affecting the pricing and profitability of goods.

NACM’s Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) fell 1.2 points to 54.1 in December. Coming off the 26-month high set last month, the weaker reading is driven by a large drop in sales revenue and dollars collected on due and past-due invoices.

With a weary economy, political anxieties and inflation abound, it is no surprise that 2024 saw fewer people voluntarily leaving their jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the quitting rate dropped to a low 2.2%, with many Americans opting to stay in their current positions. The trend, dubbed the Great Stay, comes only two years after the peak of the Great Resignation, when a whopping four million people were quitting each month. 

NACM’s Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) hit a 26-month high in November, jumping 2.4 points to 55.3. “The strength in the index comes primarily from improved sales revenue, but dollars collected on due and past-due invoices also improved markedly as did the dollar amount of credit extended,” said NACM Economist Amy Crews Cutts, Ph.D., CBE.

Sanctions were a cornerstone of President-Elect Donald Trump’s first administration’s foreign policy strategy. Following his victory in the 2024 election, many are expecting to see an increase in sanctions and tariffs, but the extent is still unclear.

With only 40 shopping days left until Christmas, it’s looking like this holiday shopping season will be a bit different from the past few years. With less time between Thanksgiving and Christmas than normal, customers will be packing a lot of their holiday shopping in a shorter period of time.

In October, NACM’s Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) presented a mixed economic picture, with a 0.2-point drop to 52.9 month-over-month, but a 1.5-point gain year-over-year. This level suggests that while the economy remains in expansion, growth is tepid amid notable risks.