➦ Firmer Inflation Tilts the Scales Toward 25
European Central Bank Continues Carefully Along Its Rate Cut Path

➦ To pivot from pause. Asian central banks are ready to cuts
With the Federal Reserve signaling the start of an easing cycle in September, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen and the U.S. dollar has displayed modest weakness.

➦ European Central Bank Continues Carefully Along Its Rate Cut Path
The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 25 bps cut to its Deposit Rate to 3.50% at today’s monetary policy announcement, but remained relatively cautious about the pace of future easing.

➦ The search for clues continues
Eyes On Global Monetary Policy Decisions Ahead as Summer Comes to a Close

➦ A snapshot of major economy productivity and costs
One important theme during 2024 has been the transition of G10 central banks toward easier monetary policy.

➦ Solid activity raises questions about the degree of policy easing
Steady U.K. Growth, Gradual Inflation Slowdown Mean Measured Central Bank Easing

➦ International Economic Outlook: August 2024
This month, we continue to forecast 2024 global GDP growth of 2.9% and global CPI inflation of 3.6%.

➦ Riksbank cuts rates, hints at faster easing ahead
Sweden’s central bank—the Riksbank—lowered its policy rate 25 bps to 3.50% at today’s monetary policy announcement, its second rate cut this year.

➦ A wild week in a data desert
Mixed Week for Foreign Central Banks, International Data

➦ Policy rates & politics to support Mexico’s currency rebound
Mexico’s central bank restarted its easing cycle last week and signaled a tentative preference to ease monetary policy further going forward. Policymakers seemed focused on slowing growth and core inflation rather than currency volatility, and as a result, we have adjusted our Banxico policy rate forecast lower.

➦ Reserve Bank of New Zealand pivots to rate cuts
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kicked off its rate cut cycle at this week’s meeting, lowering its policy interest rate by 25 bps to 5.25%.

➦ “The Downside Risks to the Employment Mandate Are Real Now”
Global Central Banks Getting Busy

➦ Economic resilience or reticence?
Bank of Canada Doubles Down on Monetary Easing

➦ Bank of Japan hikes rates further, slows bond buying
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) sprung a mild surprise at today’s announcement, raising its policy rate to around 0.25%, from around 0% to 0.1% previously.

➦ Bank of England joins Central Bank rate cut club
TThe Bank of England (BoE) joined the growing group of G10 central banks that have eased monetary policy, by delivering an initial 25 bps policy rate cut to 5.00% at today’s monetary policy announcement.

➦ Fed’s Challenge: Making Sure Fire Is Out vs. Water Damage
Some Encouraging Signs in Japanese Wage Growth and U.K. Economic Recovery

➦ No Fireworks from the June Jobs Report
Japan’s Tankan Survey Keeps Recovery Outlook Within Reach

➦ U.K.: Firming Growth, Lingering Inflation, Suggest Cautious Bank Of England
The first half of 2024 has seen a gradual, but clearly perceptible, improvement in U.K. economic momentum. Q1 GDP rose 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, while more recent sentiment and activity data point to ongoing growth in Q2.

➦ The Geopolitical Influence on Global Trade
Geopolitics have been top of mind over the past few years as geopolitical developments have, at times, rattled financial markets and disrupted global economic activity. So far, geopolitical events have only caused temporary bouts of market volatility and activity disruptions; however, geopolitics may be causing structural changes to the way countries around the world interact with each other and, in turn, the functioning of the global economy.

➦ It may be hot outside, but inflation is finally cooling
Bird Food: Some Dovish Central Bank Rate Holds Amid Lighter Global Data Week

➦ Service Providers Spark Concern in June ISM
The ISM services index slipped into contraction for the second time in three months, sparking concern for service-sector resilience. But the outturn may overstate current weakness as the details are more consistent with a moderating rather than contracting sector.

➦ Despite Import Decline, Net Exports to Slice Q2 Real GDP Growth
The U.S. international trade balance worsened for the second straight month in May, leaving the deficit at its widest position since late 2022. A resilient domestic U.S. economy and steady dollar strength are supportive of a widening deficit this year. Net exports are now tracking to slice a full percentage point or more from Q2 real GDP growth. sector.

➦ Economic data more rice & beans than steak & eggs
Global Central Bank Decisions Galore

➦ International Economic Outlook: Mid-Year Outlook 2024 update
Despite challenges—mostly geopolitical and monetary policy related—the global economy has been resilient over the first half of 2024.

➦ Inflation Cools as Summer Begins
Bank of Japan Holds Steady, but Signals Further Normalization Ahead

➦ Australia & New Zealand: Mid-year macro update
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its policy rate steady at 4.35% this week, while its accompanying statement was generally hawkish in tone. The RBA said inflation remains above target and is proving persistent. At the post-meeting conference, RBA Governor Bullock said policymakers discussed the case for a rate hike, but did not consider a rate cut.

➦ Bank of Japan pauses along its policy normalization path
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) did not make any meaningful policy changes at its June 13-14 meeting, reiterating that it would encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.0%-0.1% and would conduct bond purchases in accordance with the decision made at its March monetary policy meeting.

➦ July cut bites the dust; September hanging on edge of its seat
G7 Central Banks Ease into Summer with Rate Cuts

➦ Which EM sovereign credit ratings are due for adjustments?
In this report, we update our sovereign credit ratings framework and offer insight into which emerging market sovereigns could see notable adjustments to their credit ratings in the coming quarters.

➦ Bank of Canada Eases Into Monetary Easing
The Bank of Canada (BoC) embarked on its monetary easing cycle last week with a widely expected 25 bps policy rate cut, to 4.75%.

➦ May-laise
South Africa Heading for Coalition Government; China’s Economy Remains Under Pressure

➦ High mortgage rates burden homebuyers
Foreign Economies Show Mixed Inflation Trends amid Ongoing Economic Expansion

➦ Let’s wait and see
Mixed Data from Foreign Economies

➦ South Africa 2024 presidential election scenario analysis
Next up on the 2024 global election calendar is South Africa. Voters in Africa’s most industrialized nation will head to the polls May 29 amid a backdrop of local economic stagnation and a potential desire for policy change.

➦ International Economic Outlook: May 2024
The global economy faces a myriad of challenges; however, global economic growth remains resilient. With that said, the composition of global growth is starting to change as the U.S. economy is showing clearer signs of deceleration, while major foreign economies are demonstrating signs of recovery.

➦ The calm before the storm
Another Busy Week for Foreign Central Banks

➦ Bank of England Closing In On Rate Cuts
The Bank of England held its policy rate at 5.25% at today’s monetary policy announcement, but offered a dovish outlook that suggests rate cuts are now approaching.

➦ April Brings Signs of Cooling in Economic Growth
Eurozone Growth Gradually Recovering, Eurozone Inflation Gradually Slowing