🔥 2024 election heat wave

Many parts of the country, including Washington D.C., are experiencing the hottest summer on record. But nowhere is this truer than on the Presidential campaign trail.

Debate Disaster

On June 29, Democrats learned something that many Republicans, especially those who watch Fox News, have known for more than a year: President Biden’s age is a real liability. After a perfectly good showing at the State of the Union address, where Biden showed that he could still volley back and forth with hecklers, Biden’s debate performance was undeniably awful. Meanwhile, President Trump demonstrated that he can put aside his pep-rally talking points to deliver a performance that doesn’t scare moderate voters away.

That has sparked the most serious conversation about replacing a party’s Presidential candidate since 1968. In private donor circles, Democratic Members of Congress aren’t shy about their assessment: Biden cannot win in November, and if they want to have a chance at taking the House or keeping the Senate, they need a new person at the top of the ticket. While most of these comments are being made outside of the press, more and more are coming out publicly calling for him to step aside.

While Biden has run out the clock several weeks, many here in DC are still expecting him to be replaced before the convention. The process for doing so, however, is uncertain. Technically, the party nominee is just that – a party decision. There are no laws governing how a political party selects its nominee. That means Democrats can create any system they like to pick a new candidate, but the challenge will be selling the process to Democratic voters who may feel disenfranchised.

Trump Assassination Attempt

It’s still too early to know the full ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump, but there are a few key takeaways:

• The gunman was a 20-year-old registered Republican who had donated $15 in the past to a Democratic get out the vote effort. His motive is still unknown.
• Rhetoric from Republicans started out fiery, but quickly turned a corner, calling for unity and decrying political violence. This is a deliberate effort to ensure the party does not alienate moderate voters in their response to the attack.
• Both parties agree this is one of the most significant failures on behalf of the Secret Service in decades and will be the subject of both Congressional and Executive branch investigations, along with increased security at future events.
• Most expect a significant sympathy jump in Trump’s polling, which combined with the usual convention bump, could be race changing. The question is whether it will be sustained.

Trump’s VP Pick: Senator J.D. Vance

Whereas in 2016, Trump went with an establishment pick to help reassure moderates, his 2024 pick is the complete opposite. J.D. Vance is a political newcomer and is more likely to echo Trump’s policies than fight against them. In particular, for NACM members, Vance is a well-known anti-trade protectionist, in favor of increased tariffs and encouraging American manufacturing. He is also more anti-corporation than many Republicans, going as far as praising some of President Biden’s Federal Trade Commission actions against large corporations. We’ll be closely watching his speeches over the next several months to see if any of these positions shift with his new position.

Key Moments to Watch in the Next Month

• Keep an eye out on polls that are released in the next 2 weeks. If they trend significantly worse for Biden, or more importantly, key Democratic Senate or House candidates, you can expect the calls for Biden to step aside to become too loud to ignore.
• Look for any pivot or change in Trump’s tone and or message. A near-miss like he experienced can have significant mental health impacts or could change his perspective on key issues.
• Democrats have already started testing public opinion on Vice President Kamala Harris, but if they start propping up other Democratic hopefuls such as Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer or Senator Mark Kelly, that could mean they are getting ready to drop Biden from the ticket.
• If Biden can last until August, his chances of being replaced drop significantly, as there just wouldn’t be time to have any kind of meaningful process for finding a replacement that will also reassure the average Democratic voter.