Rates keep surging, but the Fed keeps quiet. The rates surge has continued this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.78% at noon ET today, up from 4.57% on Friday. (Axios)

WTO lowers 2023 trade growth forecast amid global manufacturing slowdown. Projections for growth in global merchandise trade in 2023 have been scaled back by WTO economists amid a continued slump that began in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the latest WTO trade forecast released on 5 October. (WTO)

The fate of Ukraine funding lies in the balance with speaker's race. The next speaker of the House will have the power to decide what policies come up for a vote in the House of Representatives, leaving funding for U.S. involvement in Ukraine in the balance. (NPR)

Chapter 11 filings by businesses soar 61% so far this year, report finds. More small businesses and consumers also turned to bankruptcy in the first nine months of 2023, per Epiq and the American Bankruptcy Institute. (Retail Dive)

11 retailers at risk of bankruptcy in 2023. From Joann and Rite Aid to Petco and The Container Store, here’s who’s most at risk in the next 12 months. (Retail Dive)

IMF chief says the global economy has shown resilience in the face of COVID, war and high rates. The global economy has shown “remarkable resilience’’ but still bears deep scars from the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine and rising interest rates, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday. (AP)

Dollar’s resurgence is a headache for the rest of the world. The dollar has bounced back with a vengeance, threatening global central bankers’ tricky task of bringing down inflation while protecting fragile economic growth. (WSJ)

Creditors, investors likely to be wiped out by Blue Harvest’s bankruptcy. Creditors of Blue Harvest Fisheries are not expected to recoup much, if any, of the money owed to them by the New Bedford, Massachusetts, U.S.A.-based Blue Harvest Fisheries, which filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection on 8 September. (SeafoodSource)

ECB policymakers attack Euro area’s big-spending governments. Euro-area governments are choosing not to pursue budgetary policies that support the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame inflation, according to Governing Council member Klaas Knot. (Bloomberg)

Lack of safety nets hurt Ghana’s most vulnerable as economic woes deepen. Ghana’s low-income households and working class are feeling the effects of the country’s worst economic crisis in decades. (Al Jazeera)

Egypt’s bonds spiral lower after Moody’s downgrade over economic woes. Egypt’s sovereign dollar bonds have tumbled after ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the country’s credit rating deeper into junk territory, ramping up the pressure on the cash-strapped nation as it heads into elections in December. (Al Jazeera)

German structural reforms ‘are a must,’ IMF chief insists. Structural reforms in Germany are needed given the current global economic headwinds, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche. (CNBC)

Australia to rejoin Global Climate Fund it abandoned in 2018. The Green Climate Fund was set up to help poorer countries cope with the devastating effects of climate change. (Al Jazeera)

German Economy Expected to Contract in Remainder of 2023

Kendall Payton

The German economy is expected to contract by 0.4% this year due to spikes in energy prices, inflation and weak international trade, sources told Reuters. Just a few months ago, the European Commission predicted Germany would grow by 0.2% this year, but now says their economy has been more impacted by weaker consumer spending than originally thought.

Despite even earlier predictions of 0.4% economic growth for 2023, record high interest rates and a decline in the industrial sector leads many economists to believe a recession is on its way. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck is set to present the government's autumn forecast on Wednesday.

“The multiple headwinds facing our economies this year have led to a weaker growth momentum than we projected in the spring,” said Paolo Gentiloni, EU commissioner for economy. “Inflation is declining, but at differing speeds across the EU. And Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine continues to cause not only human suffering but economic disruption.”

Weaker demand from China, an essential trading partner, has also weighed in on Europe’s economy in recent months. And Germany's leading economic institutes expect gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 0.6% in 2023, as industry and private consumption are slow to recover. Some economists say Germany touched a recession in Q4 of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, based on the two consecutive GDP contractions. “Like the rest of the German economy, exports remain stuck in the twilight zone between recession and stagnation,” said ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski. “The risk of the German economy of sliding back into recession in the third quarter remains high.”

Exports totaled 127.9 billion euros ($134.5 billion), showing a 1.2% decline from the previous month, according to the Federal Statistical Office Desatis. Imports were down 0.4% compared with July, totaling 111.4 billion euros.

Customers in Germany are paying on average 16 days beyond terms, and 71% of credit professionals say payment delays remain the same, according to FCIB’s Credit & Collections Survey. The most common causes of payment delays are:

• Billing disputes (62%)
• Cultural norms and customs (38%)
• Customer payment policy (31%)
• Inability to pay (31%)
• Supply chain/shipping issues (46%)

What Credit & Collection Survey respondents are saying:

• “Have a good working relationship with your customer. Be factual and make sure you have all details. Consistency in contacting customers is key.”
• “It is important to know customer's payment process to avoid misunderstandings or delays due to administrative issues.”
• “Obtain financial statements on your customers and backstop sales with credit insurance.”
• “Get updated credit information and for the owner and address verification, as changes are often not communicated by the customer. Know all you can about the customer. Pull a credit report for payment history and legal status and name verification.”

The latest FCIB Credit and Collections Survey is now open. It covers China, Mexico, Taiwan and Turkey. You will earn CEU/ICEU/Participation credit for your input. Be sure to share the link with your credit and collections network.

Week in Review Editorial Team:

Annacaroline Caruso, editor in chief

Jamilex Gotay, editorial associate

Kendall Payton, editorial associate