Economy, Week in Review
Midterm election boosts Argentinian economy
Argentina’s President Javier Milei won in a key midterm election, signaling a larger confidence in his last two years in office. The election, held in the last week of October, strengthens Milei’s ability to carry out his free-market experiment, according to the Associated Press, all with billions of dollars in backing from the United States.
Argentina’s President Javier Milei won in a key midterm election, signaling a larger confidence in his last two years in office. The election, held in the last week of October, strengthens Milei’s ability to carry out his free-market experiment, according to the Associated Press, all with billions of dollars in backing from the United States.
Milei took office two years ago with an agenda of slashing government spending and regulations to stabilize Argentina’s economy, according to the Wall Street Journal. The recent midterm election served as a referendum on the public’s confidence in Milei’s economic plans. Argentina saw positive growth earlier in the year, with the economy growing 6.5% year-over-year in the second quarter, according to Reuters, but the weeks leading up to the election saw a drop in confidence.
Over the last month, Milei has been working to avoid a currency crisis, after election anxieties fueled by an early victory for the left-leaning populist opposition movement known as Peronism sparked economic uncertainty, according to AP. Following a Peronist victory in provincial polls in September, Argentina’s bonds and currency dived as markets respond to the public seemingly losing patience with Milei and his economic reforms.
Following Milei’s victory, stocks, bonds and currency surged, emboldening Milei and his economic reform plans. The Argentine peso rose around 4% against the U.S. Dollar, according to the Wall Street Journal, and Argentina’s benchmark stock index, the Merval, rose 22%, its biggest leap in nearly two years.
The U.S. Treasury has announced direct peso purchases, including a $20 billion currency swap to shore up the currency. They are also working with JPMorgan Chase and other U.S. banks to create a $20 billion private-debt facility. These moves would reduce Argentina’s borrowing cost and allow the country to issue new bonds on international debt markets in the next year, allowing the country to rely less on the U.S., according to the Wall Street Journal.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said despite earlier plans, Argentina may not need a bank loan, as Milei is doing a good job overhauling the country’s troubled economy, according to Reuters. “There is around $100 billion of foreign capital that may well come back to Argentina,” Dimon said, per Reuters. “You have major companies that want to invest there now.”
A large number of the sales to Argentina are to existing customers, according to FCIB’s Credit and Collections Survey. Of those with customers in Argentina, 40% do not extend credit in the region. Additionally, 20% of respondents offer 1-30-day terms, 20% offer 31-60-day terms, 10% offer 61-90-day terms and 10% offer over 90-day terms.
The respondents extending credit in Argentina find that customers are, on average, 48 days beyond terms. Delays in payment are staying largely the same, with only 17% of respondents seeing an increase in delays. Payment delays are largely attributed to government approval (83%), central bank issues (50%), regulatory issues (50%) and disputes (34%).
“Expect payment delays,” one respondent wrote. “Argentina does not allow payment until 30 days after delivery of product.”
“Consider if your product is deemed a priority to pay by their government,” another respondent wrote. “Also consider if they are completing the necessary paperwork for the regulatory requirements when receiving the goods.”