Supply-Chain Woes Fading, New Indictor Shows
A new barometer from the New York Federal Reserve, called the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), indicates supply-chain issues may be peaking and could start to moderate. The Fed's new gauge uses different factors to track supply-chain snags, including the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of shipping materials, and the Harper Index, which tracks container shipping rate changes.
"The model shows global supply pressures are about 4.5 standard deviations above normal — an extreme level not seen at any point since 1997. But relief may be on the horizon," CNBC reports.
Following several months of record-high supply-chain disruptions, "more recently, the GSCPI seems to suggest that global supply chain pressures, while still historically high, have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward," a blog post from the Fed reads.
Other experts also predict global supply-chain pressures will remain somewhat in 2022, but to a lesser extent. "Port congestion will slowly unwind during the year," a Forbes article reads. "But we can expect continued supply shocks due to COVID. COVID-19 impacts will be with us to one degree or another for some time. However, the impacts will diminish in 2022."