Global growth is expected to remain at a slow pace during the next two years. However, Moody's Investors Services predicts the global economy will not see a recession during that time (2020–21). Yet, the economy would be "more vulnerable to negative developments" during this time of lower growth and inflation, states Moody's Global Macro Outlook release earlier this week.
G-20 economies are forecasted to grow 2.6% in 2020, which is the same rate as 2019, and growth will edge upward slightly to 2.8% in 2021. The nine advanced G-20 economies and the euro area will slow slightly in 2020 before returning to the 2019 growth rate of 1.6%. Emerging G-20 markets in 2019 are at the slowest growth rate in 10 years, but it will increase modestly in 2020 and 2021.
The continued trade tensions between the U.S. and China are hindering global growth, but a resolution would be positive. A partial agreement would not be enough to reduce trade uncertainty, according to Moody's. Even with a deal trade uncertainty would remain high.
-Michael Miller, managing editor