With the first quarter of 2019 nearly completed, the global economic outlook for the rest of the year looks bleak, yet a recession is not on its way, according to Fitch Ratings. Much of the slowdown in growth comes from the eurozone and China and from the U.S.-China trade wars.
The global growth forecast continues to decline, with Fitch downgrading it's growth 0.4% from 3.1% to 2.8%. This prediction, if correct, will make 2018-2019 to largest year-to-year decline since 2012. Fifteen of 20 countries surveyed by Fitch have been downgraded as well.
"After such a widespread deterioration in the numbers it's not easy to pinpoint the ultimate source of the shock," said Brian Coulton, Fitch's Chief Economist in a recent article by Fitch. " … The tightening in dollar liquidity we saw last year as the Fed raised rates has clearly had some adverse global growth implications, even if the U.S. economy itself has been pretty resilient."