Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyCommunication Is Hard The chairs of the Federal Reserve have had varied personalities. Each one has been a mystery to the investment community for a while. Some have actively cultivated that mystery and have reveled in their ability to keep the markets guessing (Alan Greenspan), others have almost been central ba...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyJobs Data Still Holding Up The estimate was there would be an additional 148,000 jobs added this month. The numbers were slightly better than expected with an addition of 164,000 jobs, while the overall unemployment rate held steady. Employers in the service sector are still hiring at a pretty good pace, but ther...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyFed Expectations By the time you read this, the Federal Reserve will have made its decision regarding interest rates. The consensus view this week has been that the Fed would drop rates by a quarter point in response to the declines noted in the global economy. Even today, there have been dissenters from both dir...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyWhat Happened to Inflation? Most economists (including us) called for some kind of inflation surge long before now. It seemed all the ingredients were there—most notably the low rate of joblessness. The old reliable Phillips Curve held that when the rates fell this low, it was virtually automatic that wages would...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyNot as Bad as Feared As recently as yesterday, the estimate for Q2 growth was at 1.8% according to some analysts and economists. A few had the rate up around 2.5%, but the majority expected a fall to under that 2% threshold. The first iteration of the second quarter performance was respectable—2.1% growth. It is ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyBright Spot in Housing There has not been much joy in the housing sector of late, but the latest data on new home sales has been encouraging. The existing home numbers have been down some as the typical buyer has been a little intimidated by higher prices and the challenge of getting a mortgage. The boost in the ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyTargeting Matters Recent studies seem to show that it matters when someone gets government assistance. Those getting help as adults generally do not see much change in their circumstances and will likely stay in the welfare system one way or another for years. The circumstances that placed them in this dependent ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomySmall Hike in New Claims for Unemployment The summer is a period of job volatility as one would expect. There are sectors of the economy that temporarily boom as people head out on vacation and there are sectors that slump. The auto industry often lays people off for a month or two while the plants are retooled. ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyIndustrial Production Remains Constant The overall industrial production numbers stayed flat, but that was only due to the fact that some sectors went in opposite directions. There was an improvement noted in both manufacturing and in mining, but there was a decline in the utilities sector. The cooler than usual ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyJobless Rate Doesn't Tell Us All That Much For many people, the rate of unemployment is the only measure they know or care much about. The bulk of the economic data that gets released seems pretty arcane, but everyone can relate to whether they have a job or can get one. The problem is unemployment data is not te...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyNo Inflation Fear from PPI The latest iteration of the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a very slight increase in the rate of inflation, but nothing to suggest there is a problem developing. As a matter of fact, the investment community has all but abandoned their fears regarding inflation and instead shifted to...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyWhat Would Prompt a Cut? There are three factors the Fed watches right now. They are not new issues, but they are the three that seem most in flux these days. The first is inflation. This is the most important of the central bank mandates as a rule. The thing the Fed is best at is controlling inflation, but there...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMore Economic News on the Way Later this week, there will be some additional data on job openings. The expectation is it will show there are far more jobs available than there are people to take them. Despite all the good news that has shown up in recent labor department releases, the biggest issue remains as it ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyJobless Claims Fall The employment picture is complicated these days. The fact is there are far more jobs available than there are people to fill them. The unemployed person today is either wholly without skills or is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The business community has been struggling for some time t...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyFed Reactions Over the last several months, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated its one major concern as far as the U.S. economy was the potential damage from extended trade wars and tariff fights. This global battle would drag down world growth numbers, which would then affect the U.S. The possibility of a...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyWhich Trump Showed Up at G-20? In the days that preceded the meeting of the G-20, the tone struck by Trump was confrontational and angry. The accusations were pointed and directed at allies like the U.K., Canada, Australia, Japan and the EU in general. The sense was that Trump was coming to demand major changes a...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyDurable Goods Orders Down Again For the third time in four months, the level of durable goods orders has fallen. That is yet another sign of overall weakness in the manufacturing sector. There was a very weak Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) number reported earlier and there have been significant reversals in oth...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyExisting Home Sales Up in May Given the slump in new home sales, there had been fears existing home sales would also be down. The sector has been an important driver and indicator for the greater economy and there have been signs of a slowdown. This month, the news was a little better with sales up by 2.5%. The e...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyReduction in Jobless Claims There continues to be good news on the employment front despite the occasional bump in the data. Last week, there was a slight increase in the number of first-time jobless claims, but this week, the number fell slightly. The end result is a stable level of employment. The challenge as ...

Short Items of Interest—U.S. EconomyMore Distress in Housing Market The level of housing starts fell in May by 0.9%—a not unexpected development, but certainly not a welcome one. The decline has been fairly steady this year and signals the overall housing market has continued to weaken. Several factors are at work. One of the most salient has been ...