➦ Iran war hits Asia hard due to the region’s high economic exposure to the Gulf
More than 80% of oil and LNG from the Gulf are destined for Asia, showing how close energy links between both regions are.

➦ Business environment risk: The Middle East shock triggers a wave of downgrades
Europe is particularly exposed to the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East due to its heavy reliance on imported energy, especially oil and gas.

➦ Short-term political risk: Uruguay upgraded, Qatar and Suriname downgraded
If the conflict persists and/or additional energy facilities are damaged, the current disruptions to gas production and export will weigh significantly on economic prospects, impacting both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon sectors.

➦ Global supply chains in chaos after one month of conflict in the Middle East
Even if the conflict ends soon, supply chains could take months or even years to recover, particularly if infrastructure has been damaged.

➦ Panama: Supreme Court ruling against Hong Kong-based firm illustrates vulnerabilities in new geopolitical era and raises expropriation risk
The decision of Panama’s Supreme Court should be seen through a geopolitical lens.

➦ Angola: Investment efforts aim for vital economic diversification
The most important immediate risk for Angola’s macroeconomic stability stems from its over-reliance on hydrocarbon export revenues, exposing it to oil sector shocks.

➦ Nepal: Post-Gen Z protests delivered historic vote for political change
After a political transition under an interim government, real political change has been endorsed by a large majority of the population.

➦ Global energy crisis triggered by Strait of Hormuz blockade and energy infrastructure damages
This substantial shock is leading to a marked deterioration in global economic activity and puts upward pressure on worldwide inflation, implying that financial conditions are likely to be tighter than they would have been without the conflict.

➦ Bahrain: Regional conflict deepens macroeconomic challenges
Alongside Qatar and Kuwait, Bahrain is amongst the most vulnerable GCC countries to the spillovers of the regional conflict given its geographical and structural vulnerabilities.

➦ Georgia: Robust economic growth amid rising tensions with the EU
The ban on diaspora voting has become a focal point of Georgia’s democratic backsliding.

➦ Bangladesh: Historical BNP opposition party has the challenging task to implement political reforms and change the country’s trajectory
Backed by a solid parliamentary majority, the new PM will have a strong mandate to run his political agenda and implement the pledged reforms.

➦ Middle East conflict raises challenges for GCC countries
The countries in the region, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are already feeling significant repercussions of the ongoing conflict.

➦ US and Israeli attack on Iran could have worldwide impact
Although the duration and severity of the conflict remain uncertain, US President Donald Trump has stated that the campaign could continue for at least four weeks.

➦ Mexico: Decapitation of one of the most powerful and largest Mexican gangs likely to raise violence risk in coming months
The initial spike in violence following El Mencho’s reported death is a typical cartel reaction to such news.

➦ Lithuania: Defence spending surge reshapes the country’s fiscal outlook for the coming years
Just like the two previous years, Lithuania has entered 2026 with a favourable growth outlook that continues to outpace the euro area average.

➦ Ecuador – Colombia: Trade war has no immediate macroeconomic impact but underlines a new era of trade weaponisation
The immediate macroeconomic impact is limited for both countries as neither country is a key trading partner for the other.

➦ Main challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa in 2026 and beyond
When considering the high-risk countries in category 6/7 or 7/7 according to Credendo’s MLT political risk classification, violent conflict is by far the most destabilising long-term risk element.

➦ Thailand: The conservatives’ electoral victory paves the way to a period of domestic political stability
Looking at the pre-election opinion polls and previous elections, the conservative victory was not the dominant scenario, certainly not to such an extent.

➦ Lithium, cobalt, nickel and copper market update: volatility, supply risks and diverging trends
Copper prices surged at the end of December and reached a new record in early January, mainly driven by speculative inflows linked to rising silver prices.

➦ OECD premium categories: Armenia, Moldova and Oman upgraded
In accordance with the country risk classifications of the OECD Arrangement, Credendo has upgraded the premium category for political risks on medium- to long-term export transactions for Armenia (from 6 to 5 on a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 represents the highest risk and premium category), Moldova (from 7 to 6) and Oman (from 4 to 3).

➦ Chemical sector: The sector remains under strong pressure in the EU
The demand drag is expected to continue due to weak economic conditions in Europe, where client sectors like the automotive sector remain shaky, or global trade impediments, including US tariffs.

➦ Philippines: Political fragmentation, heightened public defiance and geopolitical risks might weigh on the 2026 outlook
The Philippines’ economic deceleration amid the high-profile corruption scandal has also been reflected by the peso fluctuating at historically low levels vis-à-vis the US dollar.

➦ Guinea: Mining bonanza amid dug-in political control by the military
The exclusion of key political rivals from the electoral process and widespread repression raise concerns about democratic legitimacy, while President Doumbouya’s declining popularity continues to fuel frustration among parts of the population.

➦ Namibia: Medium- to long-term political risk upgraded to category 5/7
Economic growth is expected to reach 3.8% in 2026 and a solid 3% over the coming years, while inflation moderated again to 3.7% by year-end 2025, down from its 2022 peak.

➦ Latin America: Regional political violence risks under pressure after US capture of Maduro
Rodríguez faces an inherently contradictory task to satisfy both the Trump administration – seeking oil, anti-narcotics cooperation and renewed access for US energy firms – while simultaneously navigating a political regime relying on corruption, oil and drug trafficking profits sustained by over two decades of anti-US Chavista ideology.

➦ Chile: Kast’s election marks the country’s most right-wing leadership in 35 years though moderate policies expected
When Kast assumes office in March, he will become Chile’s most right-wing leader in 35 years of democracy.

➦ Manufacturing sector: CBAM implementation from 1 January could prove disruptive for the manufacturing sector
Broadly speaking, the combination of the CBAM with the phasing out of free allowances of carbon permits will involve large additional environmental costs for heavy polluting sectors in the EU and their client sectors domestically and abroad.

➦ Central Asia: Favourable economic, trade and geopolitical dynamics
Heightened regional economic integration should contribute to streamlining cumbersome administrative procedures and customs practices, and more generally improving the business environment in the long term, but there is still a long way to go.

➦ Benin: Another coup attempt in an ECOWAS country
The putschists listed grievances over rising authoritarianism and the worsening security situation in the northern border region when staging their attacks.

➦ Credendo warns of ongoing conflicts and their impact on international trade
In this context of high risks and uncertainties, businesses will find that their resilience and expertise will be key in pursuing their international objectives.

➦ New US National Security Strategy designates Latin America as being within the US’ sphere of influence
The Donroe doctrine signals a far more muscular US approach in Latin America than in previous decades.

➦ Medium- to long-term political risk : Four countries upgraded, two countries downgraded
Türkiye’s economy is characterised by well-diversified current account receipts, resilient economic growth, a well-developed banking sector and a dynamic corporate sector.

➦ The reign of the dollar: enduring or eroding?
Although China has the world’s second-largest economy, significant external assets (which help balance its high public debt), notable and rising military power, and considerable and growing geopolitical influence, the global use of the renminbi is still limited.

➦ Business environment risk: Twenty-two upgrades and three downgrades
After a profound financial crisis and a severe drought, economic prospects turned favourable again in 2025, leading to a gradual upgrade of the business environment risk classification.

➦ Short-term political risk: Nine countries upgraded, two countries downgraded
Foreign investor sentiment has improved significantly, enhancing Türkiye’s access to global financial markets.

➦ Cambodia: Succession of external shocks will hit the economic outlook
The peace deal with Thailand was a welcome short-term diplomatic achievement, but very fragile.

➦ Syria: One year later, transition continues amidst complex political situation
This December marks one year since the fall of the regime that governed Syria for more than 50 years, first under Hafez al-Assad and then under his son Bashar al-Assad.

➦ Nigeria: Will recent encouraging signs of economic progress last?
Despite the enormous potential of Sub-Saharan Africa’s second largest economy and most populated country, structural weaknesses have kept it in high-risk categories.

➦ Argentina: Milei’s landslide midterm election win eases liquidity pressures, but long-term challenges remain
This clear election victory comes as a relief to panicking financial markets.

➦ Tanzania: Irregularities and unrest after October election detract from good economic performance
The political repression, which increased notably in recent years, sharply contrasts with the relative openness that characterised the start of President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s administration following the death of President John Magufuli in 2021.

➦ Pakistan-Afghanistan: Military tensions will remain elevated amid fragile ceasefire
Ever since the Taliban returned into power in Kabul in 2021, the once close bilateral relations with Islamabad have significantly deteriorated.

➦ Madagascar: Confronted with political and economic turmoil
With pervasive poverty levels and half the population below 19, Madagascar is a perfect breeding ground for Gen Z protests.

➦ China: Weak domestic demand, geopolitical tensions and an ongoing trade war expected to fuel economic slowdown
Persisting weak domestic demand continues to fuel the structural slowdown of the Chinese economy, with the uncertain world economic context an additional headwind as exports remain China’s main GDP growth driver.

➦ Sri Lanka: Continued reform process and good economic momentum
Sri Lanka’s implementation of its four-year IMF Extended Fund Facility programme (2023-2026) is moving forward, confirmed by the IMF’s agreement on its fifth review of the programme. As a result, Sri Lanka will receive a further disbursement of about USD 350 million (out of a total loan of USD 3 billion) upon completion of the IMF Executive Board review.

➦ Venezuela: Biggest military build-up in the Caribbean in three decades increases the risk of military incidents
Since August, the US has significantly increased its military presence in the southern Caribbean through both naval and air deployments.

➦ Business environment risk: Six upgrades and twenty-one downgrades
In the framework of its regular review of the business environment risk, Credendo has upgraded six countries and downgraded twenty-one countries.

➦ Argentina: A wave of domestic shocks triggered a run on the peso, halted only by unusual US support
In the past week, Argentina – once again – experienced a run on its peso.

➦ Short-term political risk: Kenya, Oman, Rwanda and Timor-Leste upgraded
In the framework of its regular review of short-term (ST) political risk, Credendo has upgraded four countries.

➦ Indonesia: Protests maintain the government under pressure to improve socioeconomic conditions
Indonesia continues to face protests and unrest, though at a lower scale.

➦ Energy crossroads: Where is the USA headed?
US solar and wind energy developers face a perfect storm of policy and business environment challenges.

➦ Armenia – Azerbaijan: US-brokered deal could ease tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan
On 8 August, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed multiple agreements in Washington DC.

➦ Nepal: Rare chaos across the country forces government to resign
Early September, two days of rare chaos across the country saw attacks against government targets and public institutions, including the burning of Parliament and ministers’ houses.

➦ Cameroon: Incumbent’s electoral victory will not mend political risks
Early August, opposition leader Kamto was rejected by the Constitutional Council from participating in the presidential election of 12 October.

➦ Suriname: Geerlings-Simons became Suriname’s first female president as the country stands on the brink of an oil boom
In mid-July, Jennifer Geerlings-Simons was sworn in as Suriname’s first female president, marking a historic moment for the country.

➦ Côte d’Ivoire: Political unrest likely if incumbent wins October elections
Over the summer, the risk for political instability has continued to increase ahead of the October 2025 presidential elections.

➦ Thailand: Turbulent times on the political, security and economic fronts
After it suspended PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office on 1 July – after a controversial phone call judged critical of the Thai military leaked from a conversation she had with former Cambodian PM Hun Sen –, Thailand’s Constitutional Court dismissed her for ethics violations on 29 August.

➦ Angola: Fuel subsidy reforms spark civil unrest
On 4 July, as part of the Angolan government’s fuel subsidy reforms, diesel prices were increased by 33%.

➦ Ecuador: Upgrade from 6/7 to 5/7 for medium- to long-term political risk
Ecuador’s macroeconomic landscape has notably improved since 2020, largely due to higher oil prices.

➦ Kenya: Debt-driven vulnerabilities persist despite short-term liquidity relief
In February 2024, the Kenyan government unexpectedly issued a new USD 1.5 billion Eurobond with a seven-year maturity and used the proceeds to pay back the Eurobond maturing in June of that year.

➦ Oman: Strengthened macroeconomic position supports short-term outlook despite headwinds
Oman’s post-Covid-19 macroeconomic realignment enhanced the country’s resilience to withstand the significant current headwinds amidst regional instability, increased global economic uncertainty and moderation of hydrocarbon prices.

➦ Copper sector: US copper prices fall as Trump’s tariffs exclude raw and refined copper
On 30 July 2025, President Donald Trump announced universal 50% tariffs on imports of 51 types of semi-finished copper products, such as insulated wires and copper pipe fittings.

➦ Algeria: Long-standing challenges continue to shape the macroeconomic outlook
Algeria’s post-Covid-19 economic performance has been bolstered by high hydrocarbon prices resulting from the war in Ukraine alongside the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

➦ Togo: Economic advancements amidst Gnassingbé’s power consolidation
Over the past years, President Faure Gnassignbé has strengthened his hold on the country – including military and judicial power – by gradually dismantling Togo’s democratic institutions.

➦ Zambia: Upgrade to category 6/7 for MLT political risk
Former president Lungu came to power in 2015, after which corruption, oppression and economic mismanagement spiralled.

➦ Tajikistan: MLT political risk upgrade from category 7/7 to 6/7
On the back of gradually improved macroeconomic fundamentals over the past years and an overall positive economic outlook, Tajikistan appears to be able to capitalise on this progress for the years to come. Therefore, Credendo has upgraded the country’s MLT political risk rating from category 7/7 to 6/7.

➦ Business environment risk: Five upgrades and eight downgrades
In the framework of its regular review of the business environment risk, Credendo has upgraded five countries and downgraded eight countries.

➦ Short-term political risk: Three countries upgraded, five downgraded
In the framework of its regular review of short-term (ST) political risk, Credendo has upgraded three countries and downgraded five countries.

➦ Chile: Attractive export destination put in the spotlight by Belgian state visit
The Chilean economy has shown notable resilience in recent months.

➦ Vietnam: The country’s success story is threatened by the US trade war
Vietnam’s high economic resilience and performance over the past decade has been driven by the manufacturing sector and exports.

➦ Bulgaria is ready to adopt the euro as of next year
On 4 June, the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) concluded that Bulgaria is ready to enter the eurozone as soon as January 2026.

➦ Medical devices new EU restrictions will badly hurt Chinese manufacturers
The announcement that a new series of products could be severely impacted by new restrictions hindering trade between China and Europe added to the trade tensions affecting the global economic activity.

➦ Botswana: Diamond market turmoil raises risks for undiversified economy
Botswana is negatively affected by a persistent drop in diamond prices of approximately 30% since 2022.

➦ LATAM: A US tax on remittances could deepen poverty and increase unrest in Central America and the Caribbean
On 22 May, the US House of Representatives approved a bill imposing a 3.5% tax on remittances. The measure could be signed into law by President Trump on 4 July and take effect in 2026.

➦ US foreign policy under Trump impacts geopolitical risks
The return of Donald Trump and his MAGA movement to the US presidency has had a major impact not only on the global economy and trade, but also on the geopolitical situation.

➦ India-Pakistan crisis: The latest intense armed conflict elevates the risk of future military escalation between India and Pakistan
Following the terrorist attack that took place on 22 April in the Indian Kashmir, New Delhi blamed Islamabad’s responsibility in supporting Islamist militant groups’ activities against India.

➦ Critical minerals: Chinese export controls threaten supply chains across many industries
This investigation follows China’s announcement in December 2024 of the ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the United States.

➦ LATAM: 100 days of Trump changed the geopolitical and economic game for Latin America
During the 100 days that followed Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, a new and more intense phase in the global trade conflict has emerged.

➦ Ecuador: Re-election Noboa likely to ensure orthodox policies and adherence to vital IMF programme
Incumbent President Daniel Noboa won re-election decisively, securing his first full four-year term in office.

➦ Bangladesh: US import tariffs threaten Bangladesh’s crucial garment sector
The threat of sharply higher US reciprocal import tariffs is hanging over Bangladesh’s economy like a sword of Damocles.

➦ Uganda: Oil field development should lead to improved economic fundamentals
In 2006, Uganda’s oil and gas sector saw significant developments, as exploration led to the discovery of several oil fields in the Lake Albert basin, including the Mputa, Kingfisher, and Tilenga oil fields.

➦ United States: Is the role of the US dollar as reserve currency under threat?
On 2 April, the so-called “Liberation Day”, President Donald Trump announced a Reciprocal Tariff Policy that will apply a minimum baseline tariff of 10% and reciprocal tariffs on imports from US trading partners.

➦ United States: Large increase in import tariffs will have detrimental impacts on global trade and global economy
On 2 April, the so-called “Liberation Day”, President Donald Trump announced a Reciprocal Tariff Policy that will apply a minimum baseline tariff of 10% and reciprocal tariffs on imports from US trading partners.

➦ The Gambia: A positive outlook prevails amidst adverse global conditions
Gambia continues on its path of economic recovery following a tough political transition, the Covid-19 pandemic and the indirect impact of the Russian invasion in Ukraine.

➦ Côte d’Ivoire: Strong prospects amid global challenges
From 17 to 21 March, Credendo participated in the economic mission to Côte d’Ivoire, organised by Wallonia Export & Investment Agency (AWEX). The mission focussed on the water and sanitation sector, which is crucial for sustainable development and at the centre of global concerns.

➦ Türkiye: Large protests and lira depreciation following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu
The authorities have jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on corruption allegations.

➦ Bosnia and Herzegovina: Heightened tensions and destabilising risks after Serb entity’s leader is sentenced to jail and barred from politics
On 26 February, Bosnia’s top court sentenced Milorad Dodik, Republika Srpska’s president (‘RS’ – the Serb majority entity of the Bosnian federation), to one year in jail and to a six-year ban from the RS presidency.

➦ Mongolia: A gradual macroeconomic improvement drives an upgrade in the MLT political risk to 6/7
Mongolia has been on a bumpy road since spring 2017, when it was bailed out by multilateral and bilateral creditors to avoid a sovereign debt default.

➦ Kazakhstan: A drone strike on a major oil pipeline highlights the country’s vulnerability to oil reliance
On 17 February, a Ukrainian drone struck a pumping station on Kazakhstan’s crucial CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) oil pipeline. Given the necessary time to repair the damage, the strike could impact the country’s key exports and government revenues in the coming months.

➦ Steel sector: Struggling steel sector faces new challenge with Trump’s tariffs
In 2018, President Trump implemented tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium imports, subsequently negotiating exemptions for certain countries.

➦ Côte d’Ivoire: Strong prospects amid global challenges
Since emerging from a civil war in 2011, the political and security situation stabilised persistently thanks to national reconciliation efforts.

➦ The Art of the Deal, how the world should respond to the US tariff threats
US tariffs: The Art of the deal. President Trump’s best-selling book from 1987 could be the handbook for his transactional trade policy in his second term, as seen in the temporary reprieve from tariffs granted to Mexico and Canada.

➦ What to expect with Donald Trump in office as of 20 January 2025?
After winning the US election on 5 November, President-elect Donald Trump is set to make sweeping changes with his ‘America First’ message. This could impact global trade in 2025 and beyond.

➦ Côte d’Ivoire: Next country in line to announce withdrawal of French troops
In early December 2024, the European Commission and four founding members of Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) announced that a free trade agreement had finally been concluded.

➦ Lebanon: Aoun’s election ends more than two years of presidential vacuum
On 9 January, Joseph Aoun, a general of the Lebanese Armed Forces, was elected as president of Lebanon. President Aoun was elected after two voting rounds with 99 votes – more than the needed two-thirds of votes – by the Lebanese parliament, ending more than two years of presidential vacuum.

➦ Mercosur and EU finalise free trade agreement, establishing one of the world’s biggest free trade zones, but ratification hurdles await
In early December 2024, the European Commission and four founding members of Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) announced that a free trade agreement had finally been concluded.

➦ Tunisia: Weak macroeconomic fundamentals will continue to weigh on near and medium-term prospects
Tunisia’s economic and liquidity prospects have improved this year.

➦ Sri Lanka: Elections pave the way for a new political era amid an economic crisis
Centre-left candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake became the surprise new president of Sri Lanka after winning the elections on 21 September.

➦ Georgia: Widespread protests following the suspension of EU accession negotiations
Last week, Prime Minister and leader of the Georgian Dream party, Irakli Kobakhidze, decided to suspend Georgia’s EU accession process until 2028 to “defend Georgia’s sovereignty”.

➦ Moldova: Policy continuity expected following the presidential election, despite widespread division
Moldova’s pro-EU Maia Sandu won the second round of the presidential elections which were, however, marred by allegations of Russian interference.

➦ Benin: Strong growth trajectory is here to stay despite headwinds
Within ten months of office, President Milei, has enacted impressive reforms.

➦ Argentina: President Milei achieved impressive reforms after ten months in office, but the country’s liquidity remains poor
Within ten months of office, President Milei, has enacted impressive reforms.

➦ Bangladesh: The forced resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina paves the way for a challenging and uncertain political transition
It’s been a hot political summer in Bangladesh, marked by landslide mass student-led protests following a controversial public job quota system.

➦ Peru: Megaport Chancay could transform Peru into a key trade hub but Chinese ownership raises geopolitical tensions
The first phase of the megaport Chancay will officially be inaugurated next month, with operations expected to start in 2025.

➦ Serbia: Anti-mining protests will be a sustained source of political instability in the foreseeable future
Since August, a major lithium mining project in the Jadar river basin, in the west of the country, has sparked nationwide protests due to concerns about its environmental impact.

➦ Cameroon: Eurobond issuance improves near-term fiscal and external debt outlook
On 23 July, Cameroon issued a seven-year USD 550 million Eurobond with a 10.75% yield.

➦ Venezuela: Maduro seems ready to embark on his third presidential term
In the end of July, President Maduro won a third presidential term.

➦ Steel sector: Global steel prices under pressure amid China’s real estate downturn
The decline in global steel prices is driven by the ongoing real estate crisis in China and, to a lesser extent, by the weak manufacturing activity worldwide.

➦ Thailand: Constitutional Court’s rulings shake Thai politics, prolonging political instability risks
In the first half of August, Thailand’s Constitutional Court took two major rulings in a few days.

➦ Caribbean islands, Belize, Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua: Hurricane season expected to be fierce, potentially impacting business environment and short-term political risk ratings
In the end of June, Hurricane Beryl made history as the earliest category five hurricane (the most intense classification) ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean.

➦ Ethiopia: The floating of the birr unlocks badly needed IMF support
On 29 July, the Ethiopian central bank introduced a floating exchange rate regime, which led to a sharp depreciation of the birr.

➦ Bangladesh: Mass student unrest raises instability and could be a threat to the government
Early July, widespread student-led protests broke out in reaction to the reinstatement of the “government job quota system”, a system that was in place between 1972 and 2018.

➦ Georgia: Sound macroeconomic policies, but a nation deeply affected by its geopolitical situation
Upcoming parliamentary elections in a tense domestic political environment.

➦ Kenya: Large-scale protests complicate badly needed fiscal consolidation
Widespread protests against a series of planned tax increases took place in Kenya in late June. The protests culminated in the storming of Kenya’s parliament on 25 June. A heavy-handed response by the authorities has left at least 39 people dead, according to Kenya’s national rights watchdog.

➦ China: Unbalanced economic resilience at home, rising trade tensions and conflict risks abroad
China’s economic activity continues to show signs of resilience but with discrepancies among growth drivers. Besides, China is facing rising external risks, from trade to conflicts in Asia.

➦ Ready to do business in Norway, after successful Belgian Economic Mission
Between 16 and 19 June, Riet Vanderbruggen, Senior Account Manager at Credendo – Short-Term Non-EU Risks, and Erik Vandebroek, Business Development Specialist at Credendo – Export Credit Agency, represented Credendo during the Belgian Economic Mission to Oslo, led by HRH Princess Astrid.

➦ South Africa: Government of national unity faces great challenges
During the general election of 29 May, the ANC (African National Congress) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid as voters vented their anger over power cuts, corruption and the collapse of (social) services.